# Doob inequalities and Doob-Meyer decomposition

The first post I wrote on this blog was about martingales, way back in 2012 at a time when I had known what a martingale was for about a month. I now don’t have this excuse. So I’m going to write about a couple of properties of (discrete-time) martingales that came up while adjusting a proof which my thesis examiners suggested could be made much shorter as part of their corrections.

Doob’s submartingale inequality

When we prove that some sequence of processes converges to some other process, we typically want to show that this holds in some sense uniformly over a time-interval, rather than just at some fixed time. We don’t lose much at this level of vagueness by taking the limit process to be identically zero. Then, if the convergent processes are martingales or closely similar, we want to be able to bound $\sup_{k\le n} |Z_k|$ in some sense.

Doob’s submartingale inequality allows us to do this. Recall that a submartingale has almost-surely non-negative conditional increments. You might think of it heuristically as ‘more increasing than a martingale’. If $Z_n$ is a martingale, then $|Z_n|$ is a submartingale. This will be useful almost immediately.

The statement is that for $(Z_n)$ a non-negative submartingale,

$\mathbb{P}\left( \sup_{k\le n} Z_k \ge \lambda\right) \le \frac{\mathbb{E}\left[Z_n\right]}{\lambda}.$

The similarity of the statement to the statement of Markov’s inequality is no accident. Indeed the proof is very similar. We consider whether the event in question happens, and find lower bounds on the expectation of $Z_n$ under both possibilities.

Formally, for ease of notation, let $Z_n^*$ be the running maximum $\sup_{k\le n}Z_k$. Then, we let $T:= n\wedge \inf\{k\le n, M_j\ge \lambda\}$ and apply the optional stopping theorem for submartingales at T, which is by construction at most n. That is

$\mathbb{E}[Z_n]\ge \mathbb{E}[Z_T]=\mathbb{E}\left[Z_T\mathbf{1}_{Z_n^*<\lambda}\right] + \mathbb{E}\left[Z_T \mathbf{1}_{Z_n^*\ge \lambda}\right].$

The first of these summands is positive, and the second is at least $\lambda \mathbb{P}\left( Z_N^* \ge \lambda \right)$, from which the result follows.

We’ve already said that for any martingale $Z_n$, $|Z_n|$ is a submartingale, but in fact $f(Z_n)$ is a submartingale whenever f is convex, and $\mathbb{E}|f(Z_n)|<\infty$ for each n. Naturally, this continues to hold when $Z_n$ is itself a submartingale.

[Note that $Z_n^*$ is also a submartingale, but this probably isn’t as interesting.]

A particularly relevant such function f is $f(x)=x^p$, for p>1. If we take $Z_n$ a non-negative submartingale which is uniformly bounded in $L^p$, then by applying Holder’s inequality and this submartingale inequality, we obtain

$\mathbb{E}\left( \sup_{k\le n}Z_n^p \right) \le \left(\frac{p}{p-1}\right)^p \mathbb{E}\left[ Z_n^p \right].$

Since $Z_n^p$ is a submartingale, then a limit in n on the RHS is monotone, and certainly a limit in n on the LHS is monotone, so we can extend to

$mathbb{E}\left( \sup_{k\le n}Z_\infty^p \right) \le \left(\frac{p}{1-p}\right)^p \mathbb{E}\left[ Z_\infty^p \right].$

Initially, we have to define $\mathbb{E}\left[ Z_\infty^p \right]$ through this limit, but in fact this result, Doob’s $L^p$ inequality, shows that $Z_\infty:= \lim Z_n$ exists almost surely as well.

Naturally, we will often apply this in the case p=2, and in the third of these three sections, we will see why it might be particularly straightforward to calculate $\mathbb{E}\left[Z_\infty^2\right].$

Remark: as in the case of Markov’s inequality, it’s hard to say much if the submartingale is not taken to be non-negative. Indeed, this effect can be seen even if the process is only defined for a single time step, for which the statement really is then Markov’s inequality.

Doob-Meyer decomposition

Unfortunately, most processes are not martingales. Given an discrete-time process $X_n$ adapted to $\mathcal{F}=(\mathcal{F}_n)$, it is a martingale if the conditional expectations of the increments are all almost surely zero. But given a general adapted process $X_n$ which is integrable (so the increments have well-defined finite expectation), we can iteratively construct a new process $M_n$, where the increments are centred versions of $X_n$‘s increments. That is,

$M_{n+1}-M_n:= X_{n+1}-X_n - \mathbb{E}\left[ X_{n+1}-X_n \,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right] = X_{n+1}-\mathbb{E}\left[X_{n+1} \,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right].$ (*)

Then it’s immediately clear from the definition that $M_n$ is a martingale.

There’s a temptation to tie oneself up in knots with the dependence. We might have that increments of the original process $X_n$ depend on the current value of the process. And is it necessarily clear that we can recover the current value of the original process from the current value of $M_n$? Well, this is why we demand that everything be adapted, rather than just Markov. It’s not the case that $M_n$ should be Markov, but it clearly is adapted.

Now we look at the middle expression in (*), and in particular the term we are subtracting, namely the conditional expectation. If we define, in the standard terminology, $A_0=0$ and

$A_{n+1}-A_n:= \mathbb{E}\left[ X_{n+1}-X_n \,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right],$

then we have decomposed the original process $X_n$ as the sum of a martingale $M_n$, and this new process $A_n$. In particular, note that the increment $A_{n+1}-A_n$ given above is adapted to $\mathcal{F}_n$, which is a stronger condition than being adapted to $\mathcal{F}_{n+1}$ as we would expect a priori. This property of the process $(A_n)$ is called predictability (or possibly previsibility).

This decomposition $X_n=X_0+M_n+A_n$ as just defined is called the Doob-Meyer decomposition, and there is a unique such decomposition where $M_n$ is a martingale, and $A_n$ is predictable. The proof of uniqueness is very straightforward. We look at the equalities given above as definitions of $M_n,A_n$, but then work in the opposite direction to show that they must hold if the decomposition holds.

I feel a final heuristic is worthwhile, using the term drift, more normally encountered in the continuous-time setting to describe infinitissimal expected increments. The increments of $A_n$ represent the drift of $X_n$, and the increments of $M_n$ are what remains from $X_n$ after subtracting the drift. In general, the process to be subtracted to turn a non-martingale into a martingale is called a compensator, and the existence or otherwise of such processes is important but challenging for some classes of continuous-time processes.

In particular, note that when $X_n$ is itself a martingale, then $A_n\equiv 0$. However, probably the most useful case is when $X_n$ is a submartingale, as then the drift is always non-negative, and so $A_n$ is almost surely increasing. The converse holds too.

This is relevant because this Doob-Meyer decomposition is obviously only a useful tool for treating $X_n$ if we can handle the two processes $M_n,A_n$ easily. We have tools to bound the martingale term, but this previsible term might in general be tricky, and so the case where $X_n$ is a submartingale is good, as increasing processes are much easier than general processes, since bounding the whole process might involve only bounding the final term in many contexts.

A particularly relevant example is the square of a martingale, that is $X_n=M_n^2$, where $M_n$ is a martingale. By the convexity condition discussed earlier, $X_n$ is a submartingale (provided it is integrable, ie $M_n$ is square-integrable), and so the process $A_n$ in its Doob-Meyer decomposition is increasing. This is often called the (predictable) quadratic variation of $(X_n)$.

This predictable quadratic variation is sometimes denoted $\langle X_n\rangle$. This differs from the (regular) quadratic variation which is defined as the sum of the squares of the increments, that is $[X_n]:= \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} (X_{k+1}-X_k)^2$. Note that this is adapted, but obviously not previsible. The distinction between these two processes is more important in continuous time. There, they are almost surely equal for a continuous local martingale, but not for eg a Poisson process. (For a Poisson process, the PQV is deterministic, indeed linear, while the (R)QV is almost surely equal to the Poisson process itself.) In the discrete time setting, the regular quadratic variation is not relevant very often, while the predictable quadratic variation is useful, precisely because of this decomposition.

Whenever we have random variables which we then centre, there is a standard trick to apply when treating their variance. That is

$A_{n+1}-A_n= \mathbb{E}\left[ M^2_{n+1}-M^2_n \,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right]$
$= \mathbb{E}\left[ M^2_{n+1}\,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right] - 2M_n^2 +M_n^2$
$= \mathbb{E}\left[ M^2_{n+1}\,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right] - 2M_n \mathbb{E}\left[ M_{n+1}\,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right] + M_n^2$
$= \mathbb{E}\left[ \left(M_{n+1}-M_n\right)^2\,\big|\, \mathcal{F}_n\right].$

One consequence is seen by taking an ‘overall’ expectation. Because $M_n^2-A_n$ is a martingale,

$\mathbb{E}\left[M_n^2\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[A_n\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[M_0^2\right] + \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} \mathbb{E}\left[A_{k+1}-A_k\right]$
$= \mathbb{E}\left[ M_0^2\right] + \sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\mathbb{E}\left[ \left(M_{k+1}-M_k\right)^2 \right].$ (**)

This additive (Pythagorean) property of the square of a martingale is useful in applications where there is reasonably good control on each increment separately.

We can also see this final property without the Doob-Meyer decomposition. For a martingale it is not the case that the increments on disjoint intervals are independent. However, following Williams 12.1 [1], disjoint intervals are orthogonal, in the sense that

$\mathbb{E}\left[(M_t-M_s)(M_v-M_u)\right]=0,$

whenever $s\le t\le u\le v$. Then, when we square the expression $M_n=M_0+\sum M_{k+1}-M_k$, and take expectations, all the cross terms vanish, leaving precisely (*).

References

[1] Williams – Probability with Martingales

I also followed the notes I made in 2011/12 while attending Perla Sousi’s course on Advanced Probability, and Arnab Sen’s subsequent course on Stochastic Calculus, though I can’t find any evidence online for the latter now.

# Skorohod embedding

Background

Suppose we are given a standard Brownian motion $(B_t)$, and a stopping time T. Then, so long as T satisfies one of the regularity conditions under which the Optional Stopping Theorem applies, we know that $\mathbb{E}[B_T]=0$. (See here for a less formal introduction to OST.) Furthermore, since $B_t^2-t$ is a martingale, $\mathbb{E}[B_T^2]=\mathbb{E}[T]$, so if the latter is finite, so is the former.

Now, using the strong Markov property of Brownian motion, we can come up with a sequence of stopping times $0=T_0, T_1, T_2,\ldots$ such that the increments $T_k-T_{k-1}$ are IID with the same distribution as T. Then $0,B_{T_1},B_{T_2},\ldots$ is a centered random walk. By taking T to be the hitting time of $\{-1,+1\}$, it is easy to see that we can embed simple random walk in a Brownian motion using this approach.

Embedding simple random walk in Brownian motion.

The Skorohod embedding question asks: can all centered random walks be constructed in this fashion, by stopping Brownian motion at a sequence of stopping time? With the strong Markov property, it immediately reduces the question of whether all centered finite-variance distributions X can be expressed as $B_T$ for some integrable stopping time T.

The answer to this question is yes, and much of what follows is drawn from, or at least prompted by Obloj’s survey paper which details the problem and rich history of the many approaches to its solution over the past seventy years.

Applications and related things

The relationship between random walks and Brownian motion is a rich one. Donsker’s invariance principle asserts that Brownian motion appears as the scaling limit of a random walk. Indeed, one can construct Brownian motion itself as the limit of a sequence of consistent random walks with normal increments on an increasingly dense set of times. Furthermore, random walks are martingales, and we know that continuous, local martingales can be expressed as a (stochastically) time-changed Brownian motion, from the Dubins-Schwarz theorem.

The Skorohod embedding theorem can be used to prove results about random walks with general distribution by proving the corresponding result for Brownian motion, and checking that the construction of the sequence of stopping times has the right properties to allow the result to be carried back to the original setting. It obviously also gives a coupling between a individual random walk and a Brownian motion which may be useful in some contexts, as well as a coupling between any pair of random walks. This is useful in proving results for random walks which are much easier for special cases of the distribution. For example, when the increments are Gaussian, or when there are combinatorial approaches to a problem about simple random walk. At the moment no aspect of this blog schedule is guaranteed, but I plan to talk about the law of the iterated logarithm shortly, whose proof is approachable in both of these settings, as well as for Brownian motion, and Skorohod embedding provides the route to the general proof.

At the end, we will briefly compare some other ways to couple a random walk and a Brownian motion.

One thing we could do is sample a copy of X independently from the Brownian motion, then declare $T= \tau_{X}:= \inf\{t\ge 0: B_t=X\}$, the hitting time of (random value) X. But recall that unfortunately $\tau_x$ has infinite expectation for all non-zero x, so this doesn’t fit the conditions required to use OST.

Skorohod’s original method is described in Section 3.1 of Obloj’s notes linked above. The method is roughly to pair up positive values taken by X appropriately with negative values taken by X in a clever way. If we have a positive value b and a negative value a, then $\tau_{a,b}$, the first hitting time of $\mathbb{R}\backslash (a,b)$ is integrable. Then we choose one of these positive-negative pairs according to the projection of the distribution of X onto the pairings, and let T be the hitting time of this pair of values. The probability of hitting b conditional on hitting {a,b} is easy to compute (it’s $\frac{-a}{b-a}$) so we need to have chosen our pairs so that the ‘probability’ of hitting b (ie the density) comes out right. In particular, this method has to start from continuous distributions X, and treat atoms in the distribution of X separately.

The case where the distribution X is symmetric (that is $X\stackrel{d}=-X$) is particularly clear, as then the pairs should be $(-x,x)$.

However, it feels like there is enough randomness in Brownian motion already, and subsequent authors showed that indeed it wasn’t necessary to introduce extra randomness to provide a solution.

One might ask whether it’s possible to generate the distribution on the set of pairs (as above) out of the Brownian motion itself, but independently from all the hitting times. It feels like it might be possible to make the distribution on the pairs measurable with respect to

$\mathcal{F}_{0+} = \bigcap\limits_{t>0} \mathcal{F}_t,$

the sigma-algebra of events determined by limiting behaviour as $t\rightarrow 0$ (which is independent of hitting times). But of course, unfortunately $\mathcal{F}_{0+}$ has a zero-one law, so it’s not possible to embed non-trivial distributions there.

Dubins solution

The exemplar for solutions without extra randomness is due to Dubins, shortly after Skorohod’s original argument. The idea is to express the distribution X as the almost sure limit of a martingale. We first use the hitting time of a pair of points to ‘decide’ whether we will end up positive or negative, and then given this information look at the hitting time (after this first time) of two subsequent points to ‘decide’ which of four regions of the real interval we end up in.

I’m going to use different notation to Obloj, corresponding more closely with how I ended up thinking about this method. We let

$a_+:= \mathbb{E}[X \,|\, X>0], \quad a_- := \mathbb{E}[X\,|\, X<0],$ (*)

and take $T_1 = \tau_{\{a_-,a_+\}}$. We need to check that

$\mathbb{P}\left( B_{T_1}=a_+\right) = \mathbb{P}\left(X>0\right),$

for this to have a chance of working. But we know that

$\mathbb{P}\left( B_{T_1}=a_+\right) = \frac{a_+}{a_+-a_-},$

and we can also attack the other side using (*) and the fact that $\mathbb{E}[X]=0$, using the law of total expectation:

$0=\mathbb{E}[X]=\mathbb{E}[X\,|\, X>0] \mathbb{P}(X>0) + \mathbb{E}[X\,|\,X<0]\mathbb{P}(X<0) = a_+ \mathbb{P}(X>0) + a_- \left(1-\mathbb{P}(X>0) \right),$

$\Rightarrow\quad \mathbb{P}(X>0)=\frac{a_+}{a_+-a_-}.$

Now we define

$a_{++}=\mathbb{E}[X \,|\, X>a_+],\quad a_{+-}=\mathbb{E}[X\,|\, 0

and similarly $a_{-+},a_{--}$. So then, conditional on $B_{T_1}=a_+$, we take

$T_2:= \inf_{t\ge T_1}\left\{ B_t\not\in (a_{+-},a_{++}) \right\},$

and similarly conditional on $B_{T_1}=a_-$. By an identical argument to the one we have just deployed, we have $\mathbb{E}\left[B_{T_2} \,|\,\mathcal{F}_{T_1} \right] = B_{T_1}$ almost surely. So, although the $a_{+-+}$ notation now starts to get very unwieldy, it’s clear we can keep going in this way to get a sequence of stopping times $0=T_0,T_1,T_2,\ldots$ where $B_{T_n}$ determines which of the $2^n$ regions of the real line any limit $\lim_{m\rightarrow\infty} B_{T_m}$ should lie in.

A bit of work is required to check that the almost sure limit $T_n\rightarrow T$ is almost surely finite, but once we have this, it is clear that $B_{T_n}\rightarrow B_T$ almost surely, and $B_T$ has the distribution required.

We want to know how close we can make this coupling between a centered random walk with variance 1, and a standard Brownian motion. Here, ‘close’ means uniformly close in probability. For large times, the typical difference between one of the stopping times $0,T_1,T_2,\ldots$ in the Skorohod embedding and its expectation (recall $\mathbb{E}[T_k]=k$) is $\sqrt{n}$. So, constructing the random walk $S_0,S_1,S_2,\ldots$ from the Brownian motion via Skorohod embedding leads to

$\left |S_k - B_k \right| = \omega(n^{1/4}),$

for most values of $k\le n$. Strassen (1966) shows that the true scale of the maximum

$\max_{k\le n} \left| S_k - B_k \right|$

is slightly larger than this, with some extra powers of $\log n$ and $\log\log n$ as one would expect.

The Komlos-Major-Tusnady coupling is a way to do a lot better than this, in the setting where the distribution of the increments has a finite MGF near 0. Then, there exists a coupling of the random walk and the Brownian motion such that

$\max_{k\le n}\left|S_k- B_k\right| = O(\log n).$

That is, there exists C such that

$\left[\max_{k\le n} \left |S_k-B_k\right| - C\log n\right] \vee 0$

is a tight family of distributions, indeed with uniform exponential tail. To avoid digressing infinitely far from my original plan to discuss the proof of the law of iterated logarithm for general distributions, I’ll stop here. I found it hard to find much coverage of the KMT result apart from the challenging original paper, and many versions expressed in the language of empirical processes, which are similar to random walks in many ways relevant to convergence and this coupling, but not for Skorohod embedding. So, here is a link to some slides from a talk by Chatterjee which I found helpful in getting a sense of the history, and some of the modern approaches to this type of normal approximation problem.

# DGFF 3 – Gibbs-Markov property for entropic repulsion

In the previous post, we saw that it isn’t much extra effort to define the DGFF with non-zero boundary conditions, by adding onto the zero-BC DGFF the unique (deterministic) harmonic function which extends the boundary values into the domain. We also saw how a Gibbs-Markov property applies, whereby the values taken by the field on some sub-region $A\subset D$ depend on the values taken on $D\backslash A$ only through values taken on $\partial A$.

In this post, we look at how this property and some other methods are applied by Deuschel [1] to study the probability that the DGFF on a large box in $\mathbb{Z}^d$ is positive ‘everywhere’. This event can be interpreted in a couple of ways, all of which are referred to there as entropic repulsion. Everything which follows is either taken directly or paraphrased directly from [1]. I have tried to phrase this in a way which avoids repeating most of the calculations, instead focusing on the methods and the motivation for using them.

Fix dimension $d\ge 2$ throughout. We let $P^0_N$ be the law of the DGFF on $V_N:=[-N,N]^d\subset \mathbb{Z}^d$ with zero boundary conditions. Then for any subset $A\subset \mathbb{Z}^d$, in an intuitively-clear abuse of notation, we let

$\Omega^+(A):= \{ h_x\ge 0, x\in A\},$

be the event that some random field h takes only non-negative values on A. The goal is to determine $P^0_N ( \Omega^+(V_N))$. But for the purposes of this post, we will focus on showing bounds on the probability that the field is non-negative on a thin annulus near the boundary of $V_N$, since this is a self-contained step in the argument which contains a blog-friendly number of ideas.

We set $(L_N)$ to be a sequence of integers greater than one (to avoid dividing by zero in the statement), for which $\frac{L_N}{N}\rightarrow 0$. We now define for each N, the annulus

$W_N = \{v\in V_N: L_N\le d_{\mathbb{Z}^d}(v, V_N^c)\le 2L_N \}$

with radius $L_N$ set a distance $L_N$ inside the box $V_N$. We aim to control $P^N_0 (\Omega^+(W_N))$. This forms middle steps of Deuschel’s Propositions 2.5 and 2.9, which discuss $P^N_0(\Omega^+(V_{N-L_N}))$. Clearly there is the upper bound

$P^N_0(\Omega^+(V_{N-L_N})) \le P^N_0(\Omega^+(W_N))$ (1)

and a lower bound on $P^N_0(\Omega^+(V_{N-L_N}))$ is obtained in the second proposition by considering the box as a union of annuli then combining the bounds on each annulus using the FKG inequality.

Upper bound via odds and evens

After removing step (1), this is Proposition 2.5:

$\limsup_{N\rightarrow \infty} \frac{L_N}{N^{d-1} \log L_N} \log P^N_0(\Omega^+(W_N)) < 0.$ (2)

This is giving a limiting upper bound on the probability of the form $L_N^{-CN^{d-1}/L_N}$, though as with all LDP estimates, the form given at (2) is more instructive.

Morally, the reason why it is unlikely that the field should be non-negative everywhere within the annulus is that the distribution at each location is centred, and even though any pair of values are positively correlated, this correlation is not strong enough to avoid this event being unlikely. But this is hard to corral into an upper bound argument directly. In many circumstances, we want to prove upper bounds for complicated multivariate systems by projecting to get an unlikely event for a one-dimensional random variable, or a family of independent variables, even if we have to throw away some probability. We have plenty of tools for tail probabilities in both of these settings. Since the DGFF is normal, a one-dimensional RV that is a linear combination (eg the sum) of all the field heights is a natural candidate. But in this case we would have thrown away too much probability, since the only way we could dominate is to demand that the sum $\sum_{x\in W_N}h^N_x\ge 0$, which obviously has probability 1/2 by symmetry. (3)

So Deuschel splits $W_N$ into $W_N^o,W_N^e$, where the former includes all vertices with odd total parity in $W_N$ and the latter includes all the vertices with even total parity in the interior of $W_N$. (Recall that $\mathbb{Z}^d$ is bipartite in exactly this fashion). The idea is to condition on $h^N\big|_{W^o_N}$. But obviously each even vertex is exactly surrounded by odd vertices. So by the Gibbs-Markov property, conditional on the odd vertices, the values of the field at the even vertices are independent. Indeed, if for each $v\in W_N^e$ we define $\bar h_v$ to be the average of its neighbours (which is measurable w.r.t to the sigma-algebra generated by the odd vertices), then

$\{h_v: v\in W_N^e \,\big|\, \sigma(h_w: w\in W_N^o)\},$

is a collection of independent normals with variance one, and where the mean of $h_v$ is $\bar h_v$.

To start finding bounds, we fix some threshold $m=m_N\gg 1$ to be determined later, and consider the odd-measurable event $A_N$ that at most half of the even vertices v have $\bar h_v\ge m$. So $A_N^c\cap \Omega^+(W_N)$ says that all the odd vertices are non-negative and many are quite large. This certainly feels like a low-probability event, and unlike at (3), we might be able to obtain good tail bounds by projection into one dimension.

In the other case, conditional on $A_N$, there are a large number of even vertices with conditional mean at most m, and so we can control the probability that at least one is negative as a product

$(1-\varphi(m))^{\frac12 |W_N^e|}$. (4)

Note that for this upper bound, we can completely ignore the other even vertices (those with conditional mean greater than m).

So we’ll go back to $A_N^c \cap \Omega^+(W_N)$. For computations, the easiest one-dimensional variable to work with is probably the mean of the $\bar h_v$s across $v\in W_N^e$, since on $A_N^c\cap \Omega^+(W_N)$ this is at least $\frac{m}{2}$. Rather than focus on the calculations themselves involving

$\bar S^e_N:= \frac{1}{|W_N^e|} \sum\limits_{v\in W_N^e} \bar h_v,$

let us remark that it is certainly normal and centered, and so there are many methods to bound its tail, for example

$P^0_N \left( \bar S^e_N \ge \frac{m}{2} \right) \le \exp\left( \frac{-m^2}{8\mathrm{Var}(\bar S^e_N)} \right),$ (5)

as used by Deuschel just follows from an easy comparison argument within the integral of the pdf. We can tackle the variance using the Green’s function for the random walk (recall the first post in this set). But before that, it’s worth making an observation which is general and useful, namely that $\bar S^e_N$ is the expectation of

$S^e_N:= \sum{1}{|W_N^e|}\sum\limits_{v\in W_N^e} h_v$

conditional on the odds. Directly from the law of total variance, the variance of any random variable X is always larger than the variance of $\mathbb{E}[X|Y]$.

So in this case, we can replace $\mathrm{Var}(\bar S^e_N)$ in (5) with $\mathrm{Var}(S^e_N)$, which can be controlled via the Green’s function calculation.

Finally, we choose $m_N$ so that the probability at (4) matches the probability at (5) in scale, and this choice leads directly to (2).

In summary, we decomposed the event that everything is non-negative into two parts: either there are lots of unlikely local events in the field between an even vertex and its odd neighbours, or the field has to be atypically large at the odd sites. Tuning the parameter $m_N$ allows us to control both of these probabilities in the sense required.

Lower bound via a sparse sub-lattice

To get a lower bound on the probability that the field is non-negative on the annulus, we need to exploit the positive correlations in the field. We use a similar idea to the upper bound. If we know the field is positive and fairly large in many places, then it is increasingly likely that it is positive everywhere. The question is how many places to choose?

We are going to consider a sub-lattice that lives in a slightly larger region than $W_N$ itself, and condition the field to be larger than $m=m_N$ everywhere on this lattice. We want the lattice to be sparse enough that even if we ignore positive correlations, the chance of this happening is not too small. But we also want the lattice to be dense enough that, conditional on this event, the chance that the field is actually non-negative everywhere in $W_N$ is not too small either.

To achieve this, Deuschel chooses a sub-lattice of width $\lfloor\epsilon L_N^{2/d}\rfloor$, and sets $\Lambda_N(\epsilon)$ to be the intersection of this with the annulus with radii $[N-\frac{5}{2}L_N, N-\frac{1}{2}L_N]$, to ensure it lives in a slightly larger region than $W_N$ itself. The scaling of this sub-lattice density is such that when a random walk is started at any $v\in W_N$, the probability that the RW hits $\Lambda_N(\epsilon)$ before $\partial V_N$ is asymptotically in (0,1). (Ie, not asymptotically zero or one – this requires some definitely non-trivial calculations.) In particular, for appropriate (ie large enough) choice of $\epsilon$, this probability is at least 1/2 for all $v\in W_N$. This means that after conditioning on event $B_N:=\{h_v\ge m : v\in \Lambda_N(\epsilon)\}$, the conditional expectation of $h_w$ is at least $\frac{m}{2}$ for all $w\in W_N\backslash \Lambda_N(\epsilon)$. Again this uses the Gibbs-Markov property and the Gaussian nature of the field. In particular, this conditioning means we are left with the DGFF on $V_N\backslash \Lambda_N(\epsilon)$, ie with boundary $\partial V_N\cup \Lambda_N(\epsilon)$, and then by linearity, the mean at non-boundary points is given by the harmonic extension, which is linear (and so increasing) in the boundary values.

At this point, the route through the calculations is fairly clear. Since we are aiming for a lower bound on the probability of the event $\Omega^+(W_N)$, it’s enough to find a lower bound on $P^0_N(\Omega^+(W_N)\cap B)$.

Now, by positive correlation (or, formally, the FKG inequality) we can control $P^0_N(B)$ just as a product of the probabilities that the field exceeds the threshold at each individual site in $\Lambda_N(\epsilon)$. Since the value of the field at each site is normal with variance at least 1 (by definition), this is straightforward.

Finally, we treat $P^0_N(\Omega^+(W_N) \,\big|\, B)$. We’ve established that, conditional on B, the mean at each point of $W_N\backslash \Lambda_N(\epsilon)$ is at least $\frac{m}{2}$, and we can bound the variance above too. Again, this is a conditional variance, and so is at most the corresponding original variance, which is bounded above by $\sigma_N^2:=\mathrm{Var}(h^N_0)$. (This fact that the variance is maximised at the centre is intuitively clear when phrased in terms of occupation times, but the proof is non-obvious, or at least non-obvious to me.)

Since each of the event $h_v^N\ge 0$ for $v\in W_N\backslash \Lambda_N(\epsilon)$ is positively correlated with B, we can bound the probability it holds for all v by the product of the probabilities that it holds for each v. But having established that the conditional mean is at least $\frac{m_N}{2}$ for each v, and the variance is uniformly bounded above (including in N), this gives an easy tail bound of the form we require.

Again it just remains to choose the sequence of thresholds $m_N$ to maximise the lower bound on the probability that we’ve found in this way. In both cases, it turns out that taking $m_N= \sqrt{C\log N}$ is sensible, and this turns out to be linked to the scaling of the maximum of the DGFF, which we will explore in the future.

References

[1] – J-D Deuschel, Entropic Repulsion of the Lattice Free Field, II. The 0-Boundary Case. Available at ProjectEuclid.

# DGFF 2 – Boundary conditions and Gibbs-Markov property

In the previous post, we defined the Discrete Gaussian Free Field, and offered some motivation via the discrete random walk bridge. In particular, when the increments of the random walk are chosen to be Gaussian, many natural calculations are straightforward, since Gaussian processes are well-behaved under conditioning and under linear transformations.

Non-zero boundary conditions

In the definition of the DFGG given last time, we demanded that $h\equiv 0$ on $\partial D$. But the model is perfectly well-defined under more general boundary conditions.

It’s helpful to recall again the situation with random walk and Brownian bridge. If we want a Brownian motion which passes through (0,0) and (1,s), we could repeat one construction for Brownian bridge, by taking a standard Brownian motion and conditioning (modulo probability zero technicalities) on passing through level s at time 1. But alternatively, we could set

$B^{\mathrm{drift-br}}(t) = B(t)+ t(s-B(1)),\quad t\in[0,1],$

or equivalently

$B^{\mathrm{drift-br}}(t)=B^{\mathrm{br}}(t)+ st, \quad t\in[0,1].$

That is, a Brownian bridge with drift can be obtain from a centered Brownian bridge by a linear transformation, and so certainly remains a Gaussian process. And exactly the same holds for a discrete Gaussian bridge: if we want non-zero values at the endpoints, we can obtain this distribution by taking the standard centred bridge and applying a linear transformation.

We can see how this works directly at the level of density functions. If we take $0=Z_0,Z_1,\ldots,Z_{N-1},Z_N=0$ a centred Gaussian bridge, then the density of $Z=\mathbf{z}\in \mathbb{R}^{N+1}$ is proportional to

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=z_N=0\}\exp\left( -\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right).$ (3)

So rewriting $z_i= y_i- ki$ (where we might want $k=s/N$ to fit the previous example), the sum within the exponent rearranges as

$-\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (y_i-y_{i-1} - k)^2 = -\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (y_i-y_{i-1})^2 - 2k(y_N-y_0)+ Nk^2.$

So when the values at the endpoints $z_0,z_n,y_0,y_N$ are fixed, this middle term is a constant, as is the final term, and thus the density of the linearly transformed bridge has exactly the same form as the original one.

In two or more dimensions, the analogue of adding a linear function is to add a harmonic function. First, some notation. Let $\varphi$ be any function on $\partial D$. Then there is a unique harmonic extension of $\varphi$, for which $\nabla \varphi=0$ everywhere on D, the interior of the domain. Recall that $\nabla$ is the discrete graph Laplacian defined up to a constant by

$(\nabla \varphi) _x = \sum\limits_{x\sim y} \varphi_x - \varphi_y.$

If we want $h^D$ instead to have boundary values $\varphi$, it’s enough to replace $h^D$ with $h^D+\varphi$. Then, in the density for the DGFF ( (1) in the previous post), the term in the exponential becomes (ignoring the $\frac{1}{4d}$ )

$-\sum\limits_{x\sim y} \left[ (h^D_x-h^D_y)^2 + (\varphi_x-\varphi_y)^2 +2(h^D_x - h^D_y)(\varphi_x-\varphi_y)\right].$

For each $x\in D$, on taking this sum over its neighbours $y\in \bar D$, the final term vanishes (since $\varphi$ is harmonic), while the second term is just a constant. So the density of the transformed field, which we’ll call $h^{D,\varphi}$ is proportional to (after removing the constant arising from the second term above)

$\mathbf{1}\left\{h^{D,\varphi}_x = \varphi_x,\, x\in\partial D\right\} \exp\left( -\frac{1}{4d} \sum\limits_{x\sim y} \left( h^{D,\varphi}_x - h^{D,\varphi}_y \right)^2 \right).$

So $h^{D,\varphi}:= h^D + \varphi$ satisfies the conditions for the DGFF on D with non-zero boundary conditions $\varphi$.

Harmonic functions and RW – a quick review

Like the covariances in DGFF, harmonic functions on D are related to simple random walk on D stopped on $\partial D$. (I’m not claiming a direct connection right now.) We can define the harmonic extension $\varphi$ to an interior point x by taking $\mathbb{P}_x$ to be the law of SRW $x=Z_0,Z_1,Z_2,\ldots$ started from x, and then setting

$\varphi(x):= \mathbb{E}\left[ \varphi_{\tau_{\partial d}} \right],$

where $\tau_{\partial D}$ is the first time that the random walk hits the boundary.

Inverse temperature – a quick remark

In the original definition of the density of the DGFF, there is the option to add a constant $\beta>0$ within the exponential term so the density is proportional to

$\exp\left(-\beta \sum\limits_{x\sim y} (h_x-h_y)^2 \right).$

With zero boundary conditions, the effect of this is straightforward, as varying $\beta$ just rescales the values taken by the field. But with non-zero boundary conditions, the effect is instead to vary the magnitude of the fluctuations of the values of the field around the (unique) harmonic function on the domain with those BCs. In particular, when $\beta\rightarrow \infty$, the field is ‘reluctant to be far from harmonic’, and so $h^D \Rightarrow \varphi$.

This parameter $\beta$ is called inverse temperature. So low temperature corresponds to high $\beta$, and high stability, which fits some physical intuition.

A Markov property

For a discrete (Gaussian) random walk, the Markov property says that conditional on a given value at a given time, the trajectory of the process before this time is independent of the trajectory afterwards. The discrete Gaussian bridge is similar. Suppose we have as before $0=Z_0,Z_1,\ldots, Z_N=0$ a centred Gaussian bridge, and condition that $Z_k=y$, for $k\in\{1,\ldots,N-1\}$, and $y\in\mathbb{R}$. With this conditioning, the density (3) splits as a product

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=z_N=0, z_k=y\}\exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right) =$

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=0,z_k=y\} \exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=1}^k (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right) \cdot \mathbf{1}\{z_k=y,z_N=0\} \exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=k+1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right).$

Therefore, with this conditioning, the discrete Gaussian bridge splits into a pair of independent discrete Gaussian bridges with drift. (The same would hold if the original process had drift too.)

The situation for the DGFF is similar, though rather than focusing on the condition, it makes sense to start by focusing on the sub-domain of interest. Let $A\subset D$, and take $B=\bar D\backslash A$. So in particular $\partial A\subset B$.

Then we have that conditional on $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$, the restricted fields $h^D\big|_{B\backslash \partial A}$ and $h^D\big|_A$ are independent. Furthermore, $h^D\big|_A$ has the distribution of the DGFF on A, with boundary condition given by $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$. As in the discrete bridge, this follows just by splitting the density. Every gradient term corresponds to an edge in the underlying graph that lies either entirely inside $\bar A$ or entirely inside B. This holds for a general class of Gibbs models where the Hamiltonian depends only on the sum of some function of the heights (taken to be constant in this ‘free’ model) and the sum of some function of their nearest-neighbour gradients.

One additional and useful interpretation is that if we only care about the field on the restricted region A, the dependence of $h^D\big|_A$ on $h^D\big|_{D\backslash A}$ comes only through $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$. But more than that, it comes only through the (random) harmonic function which extends the (random) values taken on the boundary of A to the whole of A. So, if $h^A$ is an independent DGFF on A with zero boundary conditions, we can construct the DGFF $h^D$ from its value on $D\backslash A$ via

$h^D_x \stackrel{d}= h^A_x + \varphi^{h^D\big|_{\partial A}},$

where $\varphi^{h^D\big|_{\partial A}}$ is the unique harmonic extension of the (random) values taken by $h^D$ on $\partial A$ to $\bar A$.

This Markov property is crucial to much of the analysis to come. There are several choices of the restricted domain which come up repeatedly. In the next post we’ll look at how much one can deduce by taking A to be the even vertices in D (recalling that every integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$ is bipartite), and then taking A to be a finer sublattice within D. We’ll use this to get some good bounds on the probability that the DGFF is positive on the whole of D. Perhaps later we’ll look at a ring decomposition of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ consisting of annuli spreading out from a fixed origin. Then the distribution of the field at this origin can be considered, via the final idea discussed above, as the limit of an infinite sequence of random harmonic functions given by the values taken by the field at increasingly large radius from the origin. Defining the DGFF on the whole lattice depends on the existence or otherwise of this local limit.

# DGFF 1 – The discrete Gaussian free field from scratch

I’ve moved to Haifa in northern Israel to start a post-doc in the probability group at the Technion, and now that my thesis is finished I want to start blogging again. The past couple of weeks have been occupied with finding an apartment and learning about the Discrete Gaussian Free Field. All questions about the apartment are solved, but fortunately lots remain open about the DGFF, so I thought I’d write some background about this object and methods which have been used to study it.

Background – Random walk bridge

When we think of a random walk, we usually think of the index as time, normally going forwards. So for a random walk bridge, we might assume $Z_0=0$, and then condition on $Z_N=0$, thinking of this as a demand that the process has returned to zero at the future time. In some applications, this is the ideal intuition, but in others, it is more useful to think of the random walk bridge

$(0=Z_0,Z_1,\ldots,Z_{N-1},Z_N=0),$

as a random height function indexed by [0,N], where the probability of a given path decomposes naturally into a product depending on the N increments, up to a normalising constant.

Naturally, we are interested in the asymptotic behaviour of such a random walk bridge when $N\rightarrow\infty$. So long as the step distribution has finite variance, a conditioned version of Donsker’s theorem shows that the rescaled random walk bridge converges in distribution to Brownian bridge. Note that Brownian bridge

$(B^{\mathrm{br}}_t, t\in[0,1])$

can be constructed either by conditioning a standard Brownian motion B to return to zero at time one (modulo some technicalities – this event has zero probability), or by applying an appropriate (random) linear shift

$B^{\mathrm{br}}(t):= B(t) - tB(1).$ (*)

It is not too hard to calculate the distribution of $B^{\mathrm{br}}(t)$ for each $t\in[0,1]$, and with a bit more work, one can calculate the joint distribution of $(B^{\mathrm{br}}(s),B^{\mathrm{br}}(t))$. In particular, the joint distribution is multivariate Gaussian, and so everything depends on the covariance ‘matrix’ (which here is indexed by [0,1]).

So if we return to a random walk bridge what should the step distribution be? Simple symmetric RW is a natural choice, as then lots of the quantities we might want to consider boil down to combinatorial calculations. Cleverness and Stirling’s formula can often get us useful asymptotics. But there are lots of inconveniences, not least the requirement to be careful about parity (N has to be even for a start unless you make the walk lazy, in which case the combinatorics becomes harder), and even if these can be overcome in a given calculation, it would be better not to have this.

The claim is that the random walk with Gaussian increments is by far the easiest to analyse asymptotically. As a further heuristic, think about the statement of the central limit theorem in the case where the underlying distribution is normal: it’s true but obvious. [Indeed, it’s my favourite piece of advice to anyone taking second year probability exams to check that your proposed statement of CLT does actually work for $N(\mu,\sigma^2)$…] More concretely, if a RW has Gaussian increments, then the path $(Z_1,\ldots,Z_N)$ is a multivariate normal, or a Gaussian process with finite index set. In particular, covariances define the distribution. It remains a Gaussian process after conditioning on $Z_N=0$, and the linear tilting argument at (*) remains true here, and can indeed be applied to turn any boundary conditions into any other boundary conditions.

The discrete Gaussian free field

We know how to generalise the domain of a random walk to higher dimensions. But what generalising the index to higher dimension? So now there is definitely no arrow of time, and the notion of a random height function above $\mathbb{Z}^2$ (or a subset of it) is helpful, for which a scaling limit might be a random surface rather than Brownian motion.

Because we can’t well-order $\mathbb{Z}^d$, it’s harder to define any such random object on the entire lattice immediately, so we start with compact connected subsets, with zero boundary conditions, as in the one-dimensional case of random walk bridge. Formally, let D be a finite subset of $\mathbb{Z}^d$, and the boundary $\partial D$ those elements of $D^c$ which are adjacent to an element of D, and let $\bar D:= D\cup \partial D$.

Then, the discrete Gaussian free field on D is a random real vector $h^D=(h^D_x: x\in \bar D)$, with probability density proportional to

$\mathbf{1}\{h^D_x=0, x\in\partial D\}\exp\left ( - \frac{1}{4d} \sum_{x\sim y}(h^D_x - h^D_y)^2 \right),$ (1)

where we write $x\sim y$ if that x,y are adjacent in $\bar D$. We won’t at any stage worry much about the partition function which normalises this pdf. Note also that $\frac{1}{4d}$ is just a convenient choice of constant, which corresponds to one of the canonical choices for the discrete Laplacian. Adjusting this constant is the same as uniformly rescaling the values taken by the field.

The immediate interpretation of (1) is that the values taken by the field at vertices which are close to each other are positively correlated. Furthermore, the form of the density is Gaussian. Concretely, if the values of $h^D$ are fixed everywhere except one vertex $x\in D$, then the conditional distribution of $h^D_x$ is Gaussian. Later, or in subsequent posts, we will heavily develop this idea. Alternatively, we could if we really wanted describe the model in terms of independent Gaussians describing the ‘increment’ along each edge in D (which we should direct), subject to a very large number of conditions, namely that the sum of increments along any directed cycle is zero. This latter description might be more useful if you wanted to define a DGFF on a more sparse graph, but won’t be useful in what follows.

Note that we can rearrange the Laplacian in (1) in terms of the transition kernel p( ) of the simple random walk of D to obtain

$\exp\left( -\frac12 (h^D)^T (\mathbf{P}-\mathbf{1})h^D \right),$

where $P_{x,y}=p(y-x)$ is the transition matrix of SRW on D. In particular, this means that the free field is Gaussian, and we can extract the covariances via

$\mathrm{Cov}(h^D_x,h^D_y) = \left[ (\mathbf{1}-\mathbf{P})^{-1}\right]_{x,y}$

$= \left[\sum_{n\ge 0} \mathbf{P}^n\right]_{x,y} = \sum_{n\ge 0} \mathbb{P}_x\left[X_n=y,\tau_{\partial D}>n\right],$

where, under $\mathbb{P}_x$, $(X_0,X_1,\ldots)$ is simple random walk started from x.

This final quantity records the expected number of visits to y before leaving the domain D, for a random walk started at x, and is called the Green’s function.

In summary, the DGFF on D is the centred Gaussian random vector indexed by $\bar D$ with covariance given by the Green’s function $G_D(x,y)$.

How many of these equivalences carries over to more general D-indexed random fields is discussed in the survey paper by Velenik. But it’s worth emphasising that having the covariance given by the Green’s function as in the definition we’ve just given is a very nice property, as there are lots of pre-existing tools for calculating these. By contrast, it’s hard to think of a natural model for an integer-valued surface of this kind, as an analogue to SRW.

[Though definitely not impossible. The nicest example I’ve heard of is for height functions of large uniform domino tilings within their ‘arctic circle’, which have GFF asymptotics. See this paper by Kenyon.]

A continuous limit?

We motivated the discussion of random walk bridge by the limit object, namely Brownian bridge. Part of the reason why the DGFF is more interesting than Gaussian random walk bridge, is that the limit object, the (continuum) Gaussian free field is hard to define classically in two dimensions.

We might suppose that the DGFF in $V_N$, the square box of width N has some scaling limit as $N\rightarrow\infty$. However, for fixed $x,y\in [0,1]^2$, (and taking integer parts component-wise), well-known asymptotics for SRW in a large square lattice (more on this soon hopefully) assert that

$\mathrm{Cov}(h^{V_N}_{\lfloor Nx \rfloor},h^{V_N}_{\lfloor Ny\rfloor}) \sim \log |x-y|,$ (2)

and so any scaling limit will rescale only the square domain, not the height (since there is no N on the RHS of (2)). However, then the variance of the proposed limit is infinite everywhere.

So the GFF does not exist as a random height function on $[0,1]^2$, with the consequence that a) more care is needed over its abstract definition; b) the DGFF in 2D on a large square is an interesting object, since it does exist in this sense.

What makes it ‘free’?

This seemed like a natural question to ask, but I’ve received various answers. Some sources seem to suggest that having zero boundary condition is free. Other sources refer to the Hamiltonian (that is the term inside the exponential function at (1) ) as free since it depends only on the increments between values. If the Hamiltonian also depends on the heights themselves, for example via the addition of a $\sum_{x} \Psi(h^D_x)$ term, then for suitable choice of function $\Psi$, this is interpreted as a model where the particles have mass. The physical interpretation of these more general Gibbs measures is discussed widely, and I’m not very comfortable with it all at the moment, but aim to come back to it later, when hopefully I will be more comfortable.

At the recent IMO in Hong Kong, there were several moments where the deputy leaders had to hang around, and I spent some of these moments discussing the following problem with Stephen Mackereth, my counterpart from New Zealand. He’s a mathematically-trained philosopher, so has a similar level of skepticism to me, but for different reasons, regarding supposed paradoxes in probability. Because, as we will see shortly, I don’t think this is a paradox in even the slightest fashion, I think there’s probably too much written about this on the internet already. So I’m aware that contributing further to this oeuvre is hypocritical, but we did the thinking in HKUST’s apparently famous Einstein Cafe, so it makes sense to write down the thoughts.

[And then forget about it for eight weeks. Oops.]

Here’s the situation. A cryptic friend gives you an envelope containing some sum of money, and shows you a second envelope. They then inform you that one of the envelopes contains twice as much money as the other. It’s implicit in this that the choice of which is which is uniform. You have the option to switch envelopes. Should you?

The supposed paradox arises by considering the amount in your envelope, say X. In the absence of further information, it is equally likely that the other envelope contains X/2 as 2X. Therefore, the average value of the other envelope is

$\frac12 \left(\frac{X}{2}+2X \right)= \frac54 X > X.$

So you should switch, since on average you gain money. But this is paradoxical, since the assignment of larger and smaller sums was uniform, so switching envelope should make no difference.

Probabilistic setup

This is not supposed to be a problem on a first-year probability exercise sheet. It’s supposed to be conducive to light discussion. So saying “I won’t engage with this problem until you tell me what the probability space is” doesn’t go down terribly well. But it is important to work out what is random, and what isn’t.

There are two sources of randomness, or at least ignorance. Firstly, there is the pair of values contained in the envelopes. Secondly, there is the assignment of this pair of values to the two envelopes. The second is a source of randomness, and this problem is founded on the premise that this second stage is ‘symmetric enough’ to smooth over any complications in the first stage. If we think that probability isn’t broken (and that’s what I think), then the answer is probably that the second stage isn’t symmetric enough.

Or, that the first stage isn’t very well-defined. In what follows, I’m going to make the second stage very symmetric, at the expense of setting up the first stage in what seems to me a reasonable way using the conventional language of probability theory to record our ignorance about the values in play.

So what’s the first stage? We must have a set of possible pairs of values taken by the envelopes. Let’s call this A, so

$A\subset \mathbb{A}:=\{(x,2x)\,:\, x\in (0,\infty)\}.$

Maybe we know what A is, but maybe we don’t, in which we should take $A=\mathbb{A}$, on the grounds that any pair is possible. Suppose that your friend has chosen the pair of values according to some distribution on $\mathbb{A}$, which we’ll assume has a density f, which is known by you. Maybe this isn’t the actual density, but it serves perfectly well if you treat it as *your* opinion on the likelihood. Then this actually does reduce to a problem along the lines of first-year probability, whether or not you get to see the amount in your envelope.

Suppose first that you do get to see the amount, and that it is x. Then the conditional probabilities that the pair is (x/2,x) or (x,2x) are, respectively

$\frac{f(x/2,x)}{f(x/2,x)+f(x,2x)},\quad \frac{f(x,2x)}{f(x/2,x)+f(x,2x)}.$

So you can work out your expected gain by switching, and decide accordingly. If you don’t know the value in your envelope, you can still work out the probability that it is better (in expectation) to switch, but this isn’t really a hugely meaningful measure, unless it is zero or one.

It’s worth noting that if you can view inside your envelope, and you know A has a particular form, then the game becomes determined. For example, if

$A\subset \{(n,2n), n\text{ an odd integer}\},$

then life is very easy. If you open your envelope and see an odd integer, you should switch, and if you see an even integer you shouldn’t.

We’ll return at the end to discuss a case where it is always better to switch, and why this isn’t actually a paradox.

Improper prior and paradox of resampling when $\mathbb{E}=\infty$

For now though, let’s assume that we don’t know anything about the amounts of money in the envelopes. Earlier, we said that “in the absence of further information, it is equally likely that the other envelope contains X/2 as 2X”. In the language of a distribution on $\mathbb{A}$, we are taking the uniform measure. Of course this not a distribution, in the same way that there isn’t a uniform distribution on the positive reals.

However, if this is your belief about the values in the pair of envelopes, what do you think is the mean value of the content of your envelope? Well, you think all values are equally likely. So, even though this isn’t a distribution, you pretty much think the value of your envelope has infinite expectation.

[This is where the philosophy comes in I guess. Is (expressing uniform ignorance about the content of the other envelope given knowledge of your own) the same as (expressing uniform ignorance of both envelopes at the beginning)? I think it is, even though it has a different consequence here, since the former can be turned into a proper distribution, whereas the latter cannot.]

Let’s briefly consider an alternative example. It’s fairly easy to conjure up distributions which are almost surely finite but which have infinite expectation. For example $\mathbb{P}(X=2^k)=2^{-k}$ for k=1,2,…, which is the content of the *St. Petersburg paradox*, another supposed paradox in probability, but one whose resolution is a bit more clear.

Anyway, let X and Y be independent copies of such a distribution. Now suppose your friend offers you an envelope containing amount X. You look at the value, and then you are offered the opportunity to switch to an envelope containing amount Y. Should you?

Well, if expectation is what you care about, then you definitely should. Because with probability one, you are staring at a finite value in your envelope, whereas the other unknown envelope promises infinite expectation, which is certainly larger than the value that you’re looking at.

Is this also a paradox? I definitely don’t think it is. The expectation of the content of your envelope is infinite, the expected gain is infinite with probability one, which is consistent with the expected content of the other envelope being infinite. [Note that you don’t want to be claiming that the expectation of X-Y is zero.]

An example density function

As an exercise that isn’t necessarily hugely interesting, let’s assume that f, the distribution of the smaller of the pair, is $\mathrm{Exp}(\lambda)$. So the mean of this smaller number is $1/\lambda$. Then, conditional on seeing x in my envelope, the expected value of the number in the other envelope is

$\frac{\frac{x}{2} e^{-\lambda x/2} + 2x e^{-\lambda x}}{e^{-\lambda x/2}+ e^{-\lambda x}}.$ (*)

Some straightforward manipulation shows that this quantity is at least x (implying it’s advantageous to switch) precisely when

$e^{-\lambda x/2}\ge \frac12.$

That is, when $x\le \frac{2\log 2}{\lambda}$. The shape of this interval should fit our intuition, namely that the optimal strategy should be to switch if the value in your envelope is small enough.

The point of doing this calculation is to emphasise that it ceases to be an interesting problem, and certainly ceases to be a paradox of any kind, once we specify f concretely. It doesn’t matter whether this is some true distribution (ie the friend is genuinely sampling the values somehow at random), or rather a perceived likelihood (that happens to be normalisable).

What if you should always switch?

The statement of the paradox only really has any bite if the suggestion is that we should always switch. Earlier, we discussed potential objections to considering the uniform prior in this setting, but what about other possible distributions f which might lead to this conclusion?

As at (*), we can conclude that when $f(x)+f(x/2)>0$, we should switch on seeing x precisely if

$f(x)\ge 2f\left(\frac{x}{2}\right).$

Therefore, partitioning the support of f into a collection of geometric sequences with exponent 2, it is clear that the mean of f is infinite if everything is integer-valued. If f is real-valued, there are some complications, but so long as everything is measurable, the same conclusion will hold.

So the you-should-switch-given-x strategy can only hold for all values of x if f has infinite mean. This pretty much wraps up my feelings. If the mean isn’t infinite, the statement of the paradox no longer holds, and if it is infinite, then the paradox dissolves into a statement about trying to order various expectations, all of which are infinite.

Conclusions

Mathematical summary: it’s Bayes. Things may be exchangeable initially, but not once you condition on the value of one of them! Well, not unless you have a very specific prior.

Philosophical summary: everything in my argument depends on the premise that one can always describe the protagonist’s prior opinion on the contents of the pair of envelopes with a (possibly degenerate) distribution. I feel this is reasonable. As soon as you write down $\frac12 \cdot\frac{x}{2} + \frac12 \cdot2x$, you are doing a conditional expectation, and it’s got to be conditional with respect to something. Here it’s the uniform prior, or at least the uniform prior restricted to the set of values that are now possible given the revelation of your number.

Second mathematical summary: once you are working with the uniform prior, or any measure with infinite mean, there’s no reason why

$\mathbb{E}\left[X|Y\right]>Y,$

with probability one (in terms of Y) should be surprising, since the LHS is (almost-surely) infinite while the RHS is almost surely finite, despite having infinite mean itself.

# Turan’s Theorem

Turan’s theorem gives bounds on the number of edges required in a graph on a fixed number of vertices n to guarantee it contains a complete graph of size r+1. Equivalently, an upper bound on the number of edges in a $K_{r+1}$-free graph. For some of the applications and proofs, it may be more natural to look instead at the complement graph, for which the theorem becomes a statement about the existence or otherwise of an independent set of size r+1.

Rather than give an expression for the bound immediately, it is more natural to consider the Turan graph T(n,r), the maximal graph on n vertices without a copy of $K_{r+1}$. This is constructed by dividing the vertices into r classes with ‘as equal size as possible’. That is, some classes have size $\lfloor \frac{n}{r}\rfloor$ and others have size $\lfloor \frac{n}{r}\rfloor +1$. Then connect any pair of vertices which are not in the same class by an edge. This gives a complete r-partite graph on these classes. Since any collection of r+1 vertices contains at least two in the same class, it can’t contain a $K_{r+1}$. Note that the complement of the complete r-partite graph is the union of r disjoint complete graphs on the classes.

There are a number of ways to enumerate the edges in T(n,r), and some can get quite complicated quite quickly. After a moderate amount of thought, this is my favourite. Let $n=\ell r+k$, so T(n,r) has k classes of size (l+1) and (r-k) classes of size l. Pick an ordered pair of vertices uniformly at random. (So picking the same vertices is indeed an option, and is counted twice.) Then the probability they are the same class is

$\frac{k}{r}\cdot\frac{\ell+1}{n}+\frac{r-k}{r}\cdot \frac{\ell}{n} = \frac{1}{r}.$

So the probability they are in different classes is $\frac{r-1}{r}$, and we can treat all of the $2n^2$ ordered pairs in this way, noting a) that we count everything twice; and b) we know a priori that we don’t have loops, so the fact that we’ve included these in the count doesn’t matter. We end up with the enumeration $(1-\frac{1}{r})\frac{n^2}{2}$ for the edges in T(n,r).

A standard proof

For both proofs, I find it slightly easier to work in the complement graph, where we are aiming for the largest number of edges with an independent set of size (r+1). Suppose we have a graph with the minimal number of vertices such that there’s no independent set of given size. Suppose also that there is an edge joining vertices v and w, such that $d(v)> d(w)$. Then if we change v’s neighbourhood $\Gamma(v)$ so that it becomes the same as $\Gamma(w)$, (that is, we replace v with a copy of w, and maintain the original edge vw), then it is easily checked that we still do not have an independent set of that size, but fewer edges.

Note that by attempting to make the neighbourhoods of connected vertices equal, we are making the graph look more like a union of complete components. We can do a similar trick if we have three vertices u,v,w such that there are edges between u and v and v and w, but not u and w. Then we know the degrees of u,v,w are the same by the previous argument, and so it can again be checked that making $\Gamma(u),\Gamma(w)$ the same as $\Gamma(v)$, and adding the edge uw reduces the number of edges, and maintains the non-existence of the independent set.

The consequence of this is that we’ve shown that the minimum can only be attained when presence of edges is an equivalence relation (ignoring reflexivity). Thus the minimum is only attained for a union of at most r complete graphs. Jensen (or any root-mean-square type inequality) will then confirm that the true minimum is attained when the sizes of the r components are as equal as possible.

A probabilistic proof

The following probabilistic proof is courtesy of Alon and Spencer. The motivation is that in the (equality) case of a union of complete graphs, however we try to build up a maximal independent set, we always succeed. That is, it doesn’t matter how we choose which vertex (unconnected to those we already have) to add next – we will always get a set of size r. This motivates a probabilistic proof, as an argument in expectation will have equality in the equality case, which is always good.

Anyway, we build up an independent set in a graph by choosing uniformly at random a vertex which is not connected to any we have so far, until this set of vertices is empty. It makes sense to settle the randomness at the start, so give the vertices a uniform random labelling on [n], and at each stage, choose the independent vertex with minimal label.

Thus, a vertex v will be chosen for the independent set if, and only if, it has a smaller label than all of its neighbours, that is, with probability $\frac{1}{1+d(v)}$. So the expected size of the independent set constructed in this fashion is

$\sum_{v\in V(G)} \frac{1}{1+d(v)}\ge \frac{V}{1+\bar d} = \frac{V}{1+\frac{2E}{V}}.$

One can chase through the expressions to get the bound we want back.

The reason I was thinking about Turan’s theorem was a problem which the UK IMO squad was discussing. It comes from an American selection test (slightly rephrased): given 100 points in the plane, what is the largest number of pairs of points with $\ell_1$ distance in (1,2]?

The key step is to think about how large a collection of points can have this property pairwise. It is easy to come up with an example of four points which work, and seemingly impossible to come up with an example with five points. To prove this, I found it easiest to place a point at the origin, then explicitly work with coordinates relative the basis $(1,1),(1,-1)$ for fairly obvious reasons in this metric.

Anyway, once you are convinced that you can’t have five points with this property pairwise, you are ready to convert into a graph-theoretic statement. Vertices correspond to points, and edges link pairs of points whose distance is in (1,2] as required. We know from the previous paragraph that there is no copy of $K_5$ here, so Turan’s theorem bounds the number of edges, ie the number of suitable pairs.

It also tells us under what sort of circumstances the bound is attained, and from this, it’s natural to split the 100 points into four groups of 25, for example by taking four points which satisfy the condition pairwise (eg a diamond around the origin), and placing each group very near one of the points.

Extensions and other directions

The existence of a complete subgraph is reminiscent of Ramsey theory, which in one case is a symmetric version of Turan’s theorem. In Turan, we are adding enough edges to force a complete subgraph, while in the original form of Ramsey theory, we are asking how large the graph needs to be to ensure that for any edge configuration, either the original graph or the complement graph includes a complete subgraph. It makes a lot more sense to phrase this in terms of colours for the purpose of generalisation.

A natural extension is to ask about finding copies of fixed graphs H other than the complete graph. This is the content of the Erdos-Stone theorem. I’d prefer to say almost nothing rather than be vague, but the key difference is that the bound is asymptotic in the number of vertices rather than exact. Furthermore, the asymptotic proportion of vertices depends on the chromatic number of H, which tells you how many classes r are required to embed H in a (large if necessary) r-partite graph. So it is perhaps unsurprising that the limiting proportions end up matching the proportion of edges in the Turan graphs, namely r-1/r as r varies, which leaves the exact scaling open to further investigation in the case where H is bipartite (hence has chromatic number 2).

# Parking on a ring, linear hashing

I’ve spent most of my doctorate trying to analyse how adding destructive dynamics affects the behaviour of a particular random growth process, the classical random graph. In this post I’m going to talk about another random growth process, which is slightly less natural, but for which one can show some similar qualitative properties.

The model, and the additive coalescent

Consider m places arranged in a circle, and for consistency of analogy we think of these as parking spaces. Some number n of cars will arrive one at a time. Each car will arrive at a space chosen uniformly at random. If it is empty they will park in it, otherwise they will look clockwise until they find an empty space, and park there. For now we are only interested in growth, so we assume cars never leave. We are interested in the sizes of blocks of consecutively parked cars.

The reason to consider this slightly unnatural statement is its equivalence to the problem of hashing with linear probing, apparently a key topic in computer science, which I won’t pretend that I know anything about. In any case, it’s a nice model, and it seems reasonable that it would have a basis in more realistic search algorithms.

So, how does the sequence of sizes of blocks of consecutively parked cars grow? Well, given the sequence of block sizes, it is reasonably easy to convince yourself that the order of the blocks around the circle is uniformly random, and the number of empty spaces between adjacent blocks is also uniformly random.

Assume for now that there are at least three blocks. A block of size x can merge with a block of size y with the arrival of the next car only if the blocks are adjacent, with exactly one empty space between them. The chance of this is uniform among all pairs of blocks. Now suppose this is the case, and that the block of size y lies clockwise from the block of size x. Then they will merge precisely if the next car arrives at any of the x occupied spaces in that block, or at the empty space between the pair of blocks. This has probability $\frac{x+1}{m}$. There’s also the opposite ordering to consider, where the block of size x lies clockwise from the other. The total probability of this merge $\{x,y\}\mapsto \{x+y+1\}$ is therefore proportional to (x+y+2).

So the process of block sizes looks a bit like the additive coalescent, at least for large blocks. This is in contrast to the random graph process, where the sequence of component sizes behaves exactly like a multiplicative coalescent, where blocks merge at a rate proportional to the product of their sizes.

Asymptotics

As in the random graph process, it’s interesting to ask roughly how large the largest block will be in such a configuration. Pittel [3] considers the case where the number of empty places $\ell = m-n \approx \beta m$, for some $\beta\in (0,1)$.

A less interesting model would be to choose the positions of the n cars uniformly at random. But then the size of a block is roughly geometric with parameter $\beta$, and there are $\Theta(m)$ blocks with high probability. Relatively straightforward calculations in extreme value theory suggest that the largest block is likely to have size on the order of $\log m$ in this setting.

Of course, the actual model is slightly more complicated, because the size of a block is self-reinforcing, since larger blocks are more likely to grow than smaller blocks. However, we can still get somewhere with naïve estimates. Let’s label the places clockwise. Then in order for there to be a block starting at 0 and stretching beyond $\alpha \log m$, a necessary condition is that at least $\alpha \log m$ cars arrive at those places. The number of cars which arrive at those places is binomial, since there are n cars, and each arrives at a place chosen uniformly, and independently of the other cars. So this event corresponds to

$\mathrm{Bin}(n,\frac{\alpha \log m}{m}) \ge \alpha \log m.$

Then, since $n\approx (1-\beta)n$, this event corresponds approximately to

$\mathrm{Po}((1-\beta)\alpha \log m) \ge \alpha \log m.$

The probability that a Poisson RV is at least a constant multiple larger than its mean decays exponentially with the mean, hence in this case the probability is asymptotically some negative power of m, depending on the value of $\alpha$. But there are $O(m)$ possible places for such a block to start, so whether we can apply a union bound usefully or not depends on whether the power of m is strictly less than -1.

Since all of this depends on $\alpha$, it is reasonable that everything is fine, and the largest block does have size at least $\alpha \log m$ when $\alpha$ is small, and very unlikely when $\alpha$ is large. This heuristic argument fits with Pittel’s theorem. Indeed, his result shows much stronger concentration: that the fluctuations of the size of the largest block are O(1).

Critical regime and empirical processes

The following is a paraphrase of the introduction and some methods from [2].

Obviously, once m=m cars have arrived, there’s no room for manoeuvre and definitely all the places are taken in one giant block. But it’s not obvious in general what scaling for the number of gaps will give rise to giant blocks of $\Theta(m)$ cars.

As for the random graph, we can find a process similar to the exploration process of a (random) graph which encodes much of the information we care about. Let $Y_k$ be the number of cars which arrive at place k. So the sum of the $Y_k$s will be n, the total number of cars. Now consider the process

$C_0=0, \ldots, C_{k+1}=C_k + Y_{k+1}-1.$

A block has the property that the number of arrivals within that set of places is equal to the number of places. So every time this *empirical process* C drops below its previous running minimum, this indicates the end of a block. To make this equivalence precise, we need to be a bit careful about where we start counting. It works exactly if we start at the beginning of a block. If not, it might introduce some unwanted divisions within the first block.

What we have is a process that looks roughly like a random walk that is constrained to pass through the point (m,n-m), which is equal to (m,-l). Even if we aren’t totally precise about how this is like a random walk, we would expect to see Brownian fluctuations after rescaling. Indeed, we might expect to see a Brownian bridge added to a deterministic linear function with negative gradient. But this is only meaningful if the random part is at least as large as the deterministic part, and since the fluctuations have order $\sqrt{m}$, if l is much larger than this, the rescaled empirical process is essentially deterministic, so we won’t see any macroscopic excursions above the minimum.

If l is substantially smaller than $\sqrt{m}$, then there is no real difference between (m,-l) and (m,0), and what we see is just a Brownian bridge. At this point, where we choose to start the process is actually important. If we were to start it at the minimum of the Brownian bridge instead, we would have seen a Brownian excursion, which corresponds to one block occupying (almost) all of the places.

Unsurprisingly, the story is completed by considering $\ell=\Theta(\sqrt{m})$, where the rescaled empirical process looks like a slanted Brownian bridge, that is Brownian motion conditioned to pass through $(1,-\frac{\ell}{\sqrt{m})$. There isn’t an obvious fix to the question of where to start the process, but it turns out that the correct way is now adding a Brownian excursion onto the deterministic linear function with gradient $- \frac{\ell}{\sqrt{m}}$. It’s now reasonable that the excursions above the minimum should macroscopic.

This scaling limit works dynamically as well, where the same Brownian excursion is used for different gradients of the deterministic line, corresponding to $\ell$ moving through the critical window $m-\Theta(\sqrt{m})$. Finally, a direction to Bertoin’s recent paper [1] for the model with an additional destructive property. Analogous to the forest fire, blocks of cars are removed at a rate proportional to their size (as a result, naturally, of ‘Molotov cocktails’…). Similar effects of self-organised criticality are seen when the rate of bombs is scaled appropriately.

References

[1] – Bertoin – Burning cars in a parking lot (paper / slides)

[2] – Chassaing + Louchard – Phase transition for parking blocks, Brownian excursion and coalescence (arXiv)

[3] – Pittel – Linear probing: the probable largest search time grows logarithmically with the number of records

# Fair games and the martingale strategy III

Gambler’s Ruin

Continuing directly from the previous post, the nicest example of the optional stopping theorem we developed there is to example a simple random walk constrained between two values, say 0 and N. This represents an idealised gambling situation, where the gambler stops playing either when they reach some pre-agreed profit, or when they go bankrupt. We assume that we start at level k, for k = 1,2,…,N-1.

Naturally, we want to know the probabilities of winning (ie getting to N) and losing (ie going bankrupt). We could set this up by conditioning on the first step. Let $p_k$ be the probability of winning starting from level k. Then we must have

$p_k= \frac12 p_{k+1}+\frac12 p_{k-1},\quad k=1,\ldots,N-1,$ (*)

with the obvious boundary conditions $p_0=0, p_N=1$. In an ideal world, we just know how to solve second order difference equations like (*). Well, actually it isn’t too hard, because we can see from (*) directly that

$p_{k+1}-p_k = p_k-p_{k-1},$

and so $p_k$ is a linear function of k, and so $p_k = k/N$ follows pretty much immediately.

But, we can also use OST profitably. Let T be the time at which we first hit 0 or N. It’s intuitively clear that this should have finite expectation, since the problems you might encounter with just the hitting time of a single level shouldn’t apply. Or you can consider the expected number of steps before you see N ups or downs in a row, which certainly provides an upper bound on T. This random number of steps is sort of geometric (at least, can be upper bounded by a geometric RV) and so has finite expectation. So can apply OST to X at T, and we have

$\mathbb{E}[X_T] = N\cdot \mathbb{P}(X_T=N) + 0 \cdot \mathbb{P}(X_T=0) = \mathbb{E}[X_0]=k,$

from which we also derive $p_k=k/N$.

The reason we talk about gambler’s ruin is by considering the limit $N\rightarrow\infty$ with k fixed. After a moment’s thought, it’s clear we can’t really talk about stopping the process when we hit infinity, since that won’t happen at any finite time. But we can ask what’s the probability that we eventually hit zero. Then, if we imagine a barrier at level N, the probability that we hit 0 at some point is bounded below by the probability that we hit 0 before we hit level N (given that we know we hit either zero or level N with probability one), and this is $\frac{N-k}{N}$, and by choosing N large enough, we can make this as close to 1 as we want. So the only consistent option is that the probability of hitting 0 at some point is one. Hence gambler’s ruin. With probability one, ruin will occur. There’s probably a moral lesson hiding there not especially subtly.

So the deal here seems to be that if you just care about your average, it doesn’t matter how to choose to play a sequence of fair games. But what if you care about something other than your average? In any real setting, we maybe care about slightly more than this. Suppose I offer you a bet on a coin toss: you get £3 if it comes up heads, and I get £1 if it comes up tails. Sounds like a good bet, since on average you gain a pound. But what about if you get £10,003 if it comes up heads and I get £10,001 if it comes up tails? I’m guessing you’re probably not quite so keen now.

But if you were an international bank, you might have fewer reservations about the second option. My intention is not to discuss whether our valuation of money is linear here, but merely to offer motivation for the financial option I’m about to propose. The point is that we are generally risk-averse (well, most of us, most of the time) and so we are scared of possible large losses, even when there is the possibility of large profits to balance it out.

Let’s assume we have our simple random walk, and for definiteness let’s say it starts at £1. Suppose (eg as a very niche birthday present) we have the following opportunity: at any point between now and time t=5, we have the right to buy one unit of the stock for £2.

We want to work out how much this opportunity, which from now on I’m going to call an option, is worth on average. Note that now it does seem that when we choose to cash in the option will have an effect on our return, and so we will have to include this in the analysis.

Note that, once we’ve bought a unit of the stock, we have an asset which is following a simple random walk (ie sequential fair games) and so from this point on its expected value remains unchanged. So in terms of expectation, we might as well sell the stock at the same moment we buy it. So if we cash in the option when the stock is currently worth £X, we will on average have a return of £(X-2). This means that we’ll only ever consider exercising our option if the current value of the stock is greater than £2. This narrows down our strategy slightly.

This sort of option minimises the risk of a large loss, since the worst thing that happens is that you never choose to exercise your option. So if you actually paid for the right to have this option, that cost is the largest amount you can lose. In the trading world, this type of opportunity is called an American option.

The trick here is to work backwards in time, thinking about strategies. If at time t=4, the stock is worth £1, then the best that can happen is that it’s worth £2 at time t=5, and this still gains you no wealth overall. Similarly if it’s worth £0 at time t=3. So we’ve identified a region where, if the stock value enters this region, we might as well rip up our contract, because we definitely aren’t going to gain anything. Remember now that we’ve also said you won’t ever cash in if the stock’s value is at most £2, because you don’t gain anything on average.

Now suppose that the stock has value £3 at time t=4. There’s no danger of it ever getting back below £2 during the lifetime of the option, so from now on your potential return is following the trajectory of a simple random walk, ie a fair game. So on average, it makes no difference whether you cash in now, or wait until t=5, or some combination of the two. The same argument holds if the stock has value £4 at time t=3 or time t=4, and so we can identify a region where you might as well cash in.

What about the final region? If the stock value is greater than £2, but not yet in the definitely-cash-in area, what should you do? Well, if you think about it, the value of the stock is a fair game. But your return should be better than that, because the stock price doesn’t take account of the fact that you wouldn’t buy in (and make a loss overall) if the value drops below £2. So at this stage, your future options are better than playing a fair game, and so it doesn’t make sense (in terms of maximising your *average*) to cash in.

Now we can actually work backwards in time to establish how much any starting value is worth under this optimal strategy. We can fill in the values in the ‘doomed’ area (ie all zeros) and on the ‘cash in now’ area (ie current value minus 2), and construct backwards using the fact that we have a random walk.

The final answer ends up being 7/16 if the stock had value £1 at time 0. Note that the main point here is that working out the qualitative form of the strategy was the non-trivial part. Once we’d done that, everything was fairly straightforward. I claim that this was a reasonably fun adjustment to the original problem, but have minimal idea whether pricing options is in general an interesting thing to do.

Anyway, I hope that provided an interesting overview to some of the topics of interest within the question of how to choose strategies for games based on random processes.

# Fair games and the martingale strategy II

Optional Stopping

We continue directly from the end of the last post, where I was talking about how to play sequences of fair games, and whether by playing cunningly (including choosing when to stop playing cunningly) you can end up with an ‘unfair’ game overall. (Ie where you make a profit or a loss on average.) We gave two examples. First, the martingale strategy, where on a sequence of fair games you double your stake each time you lose. The result is that you win back your original stake at some point with probability one, but possibly accumulate huge temporary losses along the way. In the second game, you follow the path of a simple random walk from zero until it hits one, and then cash in. Here we observe that the time until this happens is almost surely finite, but has infinite expectation.

There’s another possible problem. It seems ridiculous, but suppose we could look into the future. Then our strategy for the random walk might be something like: check in advance what will happen in the first ten steps, and stop playing whenever we get to the moment which we know is the maximum value the walk will attain. Well then, sometimes the walk will never go above zero, in which case we will stop playing at the very start, and sometimes the walk will go above zero, in which case we make a positive amount. So overall, our mean return must be positive. Obviously if we have the option to adjust our stakes, this is completely ridiculous, because we would bet high (infinitely high?) if we knew we were about to win, and nothing if we were about to lose. So, obvious though it seems, we should emphasise that we mustn’t be allowed to look into the future!

The optional stopping theorem says that looking into the future, and these two problems already mentioned are essentially all that can go wrong. To say anything more interesting, at this point we really do need a little bit of notation.

In general, a sequence of fair games of this kind is called a martingale. The origin of the word is fairly unclear – see this unexpectedly comprehensive article. The martingale will be something like $X_0,X_1,X_2,\ldots$, representing the wealth (or whatever) at discrete time-steps. The key property is the fair game property, which says that whatever has happened up to time k, the next game is fair. That is:

$\mathbb{E}[X_{k+1}-X_k \,|\,\text{any event involving }X_0,\ldots,X_k] = 0.$ (*)

Note that in any of the situations we are describing, X should describe our wealth, rather than the underlying process. In the random walk example, these are the same, but in the martingale strategy suggestion, $X_k$ should be our wealth after the kth game, rather than anything directly recording the outcomes of the coin tosses.

If we allow $X_0$ to be random (and of course, being always equal to zero is a special case of being random…) we can then add up an initial sequence of such equations to obtain

$\mathbb{E}[X_k]=\mathbb{E}[X_k-X_{k_1}] + \ldots + \mathbb{E}[X_1-X_0] + \mathbb{E}[X_0]=\mathbb{E}[X_0].$ (**)

That is, if we play any sequence of fair games a fixed finite number of times, we have overall a fair game. (In the original strategy, we have a martingale, irrespective of the precise rule we use to choose how much we invest on each coin toss.) But what if we stop the process at a time determined by the current knowledge? (ie without looking into the future.)

Let’s call an example of such a random time T, and this property that we aren’t allowed to look into the future is described technically as the stopping time property. A proper setup would use more notation and fewer words at (*), but even without sigma-algebras, we can say that T is a stopping time if deciding whether T=k depends only on $X_0,X_1,\ldots,X_k$, and not on later actions.

Informal Proof

To show the optional stopping theorem, the key idea is that if you want to stop at time T, one option is to keep playing beyond time T with zero stakes. Thus we have a fair game at all times, even after T. We write this as $X_{T\wedge k}$, where $\wedge$ means ‘minimum’, so that if k>T, the process stays constant.

Since $X_{T\wedge k}$ is a martingale, we can invoke (**),

$\mathbb{E}[X_{T\wedge k}] = \mathbb{E}[X_0].$

Now what happens if we take k to be very large? How well does this truncated average approximate $\mathbb{E}[X_T]$ itself?

This is where we want to return to our assumptions about what might make this go wrong. Let’s say that T has finite expectation, and that there is some absolute bound on how large an increment can be, say C. Then, whenever $T\le k$, we have $X_T=X_{T\wedge k}$. And when T>k, we have

$|X_T - X_{T\wedge k}| = |X_T-X_k| \le C(T-k).$

Therefore

$|\mathbb{E}[X_T]-\mathbb{E}[X_0]|= |\mathbb{E}[X_T] - \mathbb{E}[X_{T\wedge k}] | \le C \mathbb{E}[(T-k)\vee 0],$ (***)

where we take the final expectation only across T-k when this quantity is positive, since this is the only case which contributes to the left hand side.

Now we need to show that by choosing k large enough, we can make the RHS very small. Obviously we don’t have a chance of doing this if C is not finite! With a bit of thought, we can see that $\mathbb{E}[(T-k)\vee 0]\ge \mathbb{E}[T] - k$, and so we also don’t have a chance of doing this if $\mathbb{E}[T]=\infty$. But if $\mathbb{E}[T]<\infty$, then $\sum_{\ell\ge 1} \ell \mathbb{P}(T=\ell) <\infty$, and so

$\sum_{\ell \ge k} \ell \mathbb{P}(T=\ell)\rightarrow 0,\quad \text{as }k\rightarrow\infty,$

and so certainly

$\mathbb{E}[(T-k)\vee 0] = \sum_{\ell \ge k}(\ell -k)\mathbb{P}(T=\ell) \rightarrow 0.$

But (***) holds for all values of k, and so the only consistent option is that

$\mathbb{E}[X_T]=\mathbb{E}[X_0].$

There are a couple more combinations of conditions (mostly involving relaxing one of these slightly, and substantially strengthening the other) which also work, but this seems like the more natural form. For a full formal statement, there are many resources available, and the Wikipedia page, for example, isn’t too bad. In the mists of history, I wrote about some of these topics more formally, but maybe less helpfully, since I’d known the theory myself for about a week.