# BMO1 2018

The first round of the British Mathematical Olympiad was sat yesterday. The paper can be found here, and video solutions here. Copyright for the questions is held by BMOS. They are reproduced here with permission.

I hope any students who sat the paper enjoyed at least some of the questions, and found it challenging! The following commentaries on the problems are not official solutions, and are not always full solutions at all, but contain significant steps of solutions, so would be best saved until after you have attempted the problems, if you are planning to do so. I’ve written quite a lot about Q5 because I found it hard (or at least time-consuming) and somewhat atypical, and I’ve written a lot about Q6 because there was a lot to say. I hope at least some of this is interesting to some readers of all levels of olympiad experience.

Question 1

A list of five two-digit positive integers is written in increasing order on a blackboard. Each of the five integers is a multiple of 3, and each digit {0,1,…,9} appears exactly once on the blackboard. In how many ways can this be done? (Note that a two-digit number cannot begin with zero.)

It’s a trope of BMO1 that the first question must be doable by some sort of exhaustive calculation or listing exercise. Of course, that is rarely the most efficient solution.

However, there is normally a trade-off between eliminating all listing, and reducing to a manageable task.

The key observation here is that writing the integers in increasing order is really just a way to indicate that order of the choices doesn’t matter. Even if that seems counter-intuitive. The question wants to know how many ways to choose these five numbers. The order of choice doesn’t matter since we’re going to put them in ascending order on the blackboard anyway.

You want to make your choices with as much independence as possible. So it would, for example, be a bad idea to choose the smallest number first. How many possibilities are there where the smallest number is 24? What about 42? What about 69? These are all different, and some are zero, so will make the computation very taxing.

However, you might notice that the digits {0,3,6,9} have to go together to form two numbers, and the rest have to pair up with one digit from {1,4,7} and one from {2,5,8}. You might know that an integer is divisible by 3 precisely if its digit sum is divisible by 3, but in this context you wouldn’t lose too much time by simply listing everything! These tasks are now completely separate, so you can take the number of ways to pair up {0,3,6,9} and multiply by the number of ways to pair up {1,4,7} and {2,5,8}. You need to take care over the ordering. It does (obviously) matter which is the first digit and which is the second digit in a number!

# The reflection principle and conditioned RWs

I haven’t published a post about probability for far too long. Several are queued, so perhaps this will be the start of a deluge.

Anyway, with my advisor at Technion, I’m still working on some problems concerning Gaussian random walk subject to some conditioning which is complicated, but in practice (we hope) only mildly different to conditioning the walk to stay positive. Our conditioning at step n depends on some external randomness, but also on the future trajectory of the walk (related to the embedding of the walk in a 2D DGFF), thus ruining the possibility of applying the Markov property in any proof without significant preliminary work.

It seemed worth writing briefly about some of these results in a slightly simpler setting. The goal is to assemble many of the ingredients required to prove a local limit for Gaussian random walk conditioned to stay positive, in a sense which will be clarified towards the end. This is not the best way to go about getting scaling limits (as discussed briefly here, and for which see references [Ig74] and [Bo76]), and it’s probably not the best way to get local limits in the simplest setting, but it’s the method we are currently working to generalise, and follows the outline of [B-JD05], but in much less technical detail.

Probabilities via the reflection principle

We start with Brownian motion. The reflection principle, as described briefly in this post from the depths of history, is a classical technique for studying the maximum of Brownian motion. Roughly speaking, we exploit the fact that $(W_t,t\ge 0)\stackrel{d}=(-W_t,t\ge 0)$, but we then apply this at the hitting time of a particular positive value, using the Strong Markov Property.

Let $S_t=\max_{0\le s\le t}W_s$ be the running maximum of the Brownian motion $W_t$, and $\tau_b$ the hitting time of b. Then

$\mathbb{P}(S_t\ge b, B_t\le a)=\mathbb{P}(\tau_b

which, by SMP at $\tau_b$ and the reflection invariance of a standard BM, is equal to

$\mathbb{P}(\tau_b

This obviously assumed $b\ge a$, but if we set $b=a$, we find

$\mathbb{P}(S_t\ge b)=\mathbb{P}(B_t>b)+\mathbb{P}(S_t\ge b,B_t\le b)=2\mathbb{P}(B_t\ge b).$

Or, in other words, $S_t\stackrel{d}=|B_t|$.

While we can’t derive such nice equalities in distribution, the reflection principle is robust enough to treat more complicated settings, such as Brownian bridge.

We might want to ask about the maximum of a standard Brownian bridge, but we can be more general, and ask about the maximum of a Brownian bridge with drift (let’s say general bridge here). It’s important to remember that a general Brownian bridge has the same distribution as a linear transformation of a standard Brownian bridge. Everything is Gaussian, after all. So asking whether the maximum of a general Brownian bridge is less than a particular value is equivalent to asking whether a standard Brownian bridge lies below a fixed line. Wherever possible, we make such a transformation at the start and perform the simplest version of the required calculation.

So, suppose we have a bridge B from (0,0) to (t,a), and we want to study $\max_{s\in[0,t]} B_s$. Fix some $b>a$, and work with a standard Brownian motion $W_s$. By a similar argument to before,

$\mathbb{P}(\tau_b\le t, W_t\in[a,a+\mathrm{d}x]) = \mathbb{P}(W_t\in [2b-a-\mathrm{d}x,2b-a]) = \frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\sqrt{2\pi t}}e^{-(2b-a)^2/2t},$

and

$\mathbb{P}(W_t\in[a,a+\mathrm{d}x])=\frac{\mathrm{d}x}{\sqrt{2\pi t}}e^{-a^2/2t}.$

So

$\mathbb{P}(\max_{s\in[0,t]}B_t\ge b) = \exp\left(\frac{-(2b-a)^2 + a^2}{2t}\right).$

Random walk conditioned to stay positive

Our main concern is conditioning to stay above zero. Let $\mathbb{P}_{0,x}^{t,y}$ be some complete if cumbersome notation for a Brownian bridge B from (0,x) to (t,y). Then another simple transformation of the previous result gives

$\mathbb{P}_{0,x}^{t,y}(B_s\ge 0,\,s\in[0,t])=1-\exp\left( \frac{-(x+y)^2 + (x-y)^2}{2t} \right)= 1-\exp\left(-\frac{2xy}{t}\right).$

Then, if $xy\ll t$, we can approximate this by $\frac{2xy}{t}$. (*)

Extend the notation so $\mathbb{P}_{0,x}$ describes Brownian motion started from (0,x). Then integrating over y, gives

$\mathbb{P}_{0,x}(B_s\ge 0,\, s\in[0,t] ) = \frac{x}{t}\mathbb{E}[B_t\vee 0] = \sqrt{\frac{2}{\pi}} \frac{x}{\sqrt{t}}.$

(It might appear that we have integrated the approximation (*) over parts of the range where it is not a valid approximation, but the density of $B_t=\Theta(t)$ vanishes exponentially fast, and so actually it’s not a problem.)

We now want to extend this to random walks. Some remarks:

• We used the Gaussian property of Brownian motion fairly heavily throughout this derivation. In general random walks are not Gaussian, though we can make life easier by focusing on this case.
• We also used the continuity property of Brownian motion when we applied the reflection principle. For a general random walk, it’s hopeless to consider the hitting times of individual values. We have to consider instead the hitting times of regions $\tau_{(-\infty,b]}$, and so on. One can still apply SMP and a reflection principle, but this gives bounds rather than equalities. (The exception is simple random walk, for which other more combinatorial methods may be available anyway.)
• On the flip side, if we are interested in Brownian motion/bridge staying positive, we can’t start it from zero, as then the probability of this event is zero, by Blumenthal’s 0-1 law. By contrast, we can certainly ask about random walk staying positive when started from zero without taking a limit.

A useful technique will be the viewpoint of random walk as the values taken by Brownian motion at a sequence of stopping times. This Skorohod embedding is slightly less obvious when considering a general random walk bridge inside a general Brownian bridge, but is achievable. We want to study quantities like

$\mathbb{P}(S_k\ge 0,\, k=1,\ldots,n \big| S_0=x,S_n=y),$

where for simplicity let’s just take $(S_k,k\ge 0)$ to be a random walk with standard Gaussian increments. It’s possible we might want to take a scaling limit in x and y as functions of n. But first if we take x,y fixed, and embed the random walk bridge with these endpoints into the corresponding Brownian bridge with $t\approx n$, we are then faced with the question:

What’s the probability that the Brownian bridge goes below zero, but the embedded RW with n steps does not?

If the Brownian bridge conditioned to go below zero spends time $\Theta_p(n)$ below zero, then for large n it’s asymptotically very unlikely that the n places at which we embed the random walk avoids this set of intervals.

Several technical estimates are required to make this analysis rigorous. The conclusion is that there exists a function $f(x)$ for which $f(x)=x(1+o(1))$ as $x\rightarrow\infty$, such that

$q_n(x,y):=\mathbb{P}(S_k\ge 0,\, k=0,1,\ldots,n \,\big|\, S_0=x,S_n=y) \sim \frac{2f(x)f(y)}{n},$

$\text{and}\quad q_n(x):=\mathbb{P}(S_k\ge 0,\,k=0,1,\ldots,n\,\big|\, S_0=x)\sim \sqrt{\frac{2}{\pi}}\frac{f(x)}{\sqrt{n}}.$

As earlier, the second is obtained from the first by integrating over suitable y. This function $f$ has to account for the extra complications when either end-point is near zero, for which the event where the Brownian motion goes negative without the random walk going negative requires additional care.

Limits for the conditioned random walk

In the previous post on this topic, we addressed scaling limits in space and time for conditioned random walks. But we don’t have to look at the classical Donsker scaling to see the effects of conditioning to stay positive. In our setting, we are interested in studying the distribution of $S_m$ conditional on the event $(S_1\ge 0,S_2\ge 0,\ldots, S_n\ge 0)$, with limits taken in the order $n\rightarrow\infty$ and then $m\rightarrow\infty$.

(At a more general level, it is meaningful to describe the random walk conditioned on staying positive forever. Although this would a priori require conditioning on an event of probability zero, it can be handled formally as an example of an h-transform.)

As explained in that previous post, the scaling invariance of the Bessel process $W^+$ (which it’s not unreasonable to think of as ‘Brownian motion conditioned to stay non-negative’) suggests that this limit should exist, and be given by the entrance law of $W^+$. But this is hard to extract from a scaling limit.

However, we can use the previous estimate to start a direct calculation.

$\mathbb{P}(S_m\in \mathrm{d}y \,\big|\, S_k\ge 0,\, k=1,\ldots,n) = \frac{q_m(0,y) q_{n-m}(y) \mathbb{P}(S_m\in\mathrm{d}y)}{q_n(0)}.$

Here, we used the Markov property at time m to split the event that $S_m=y$ and the walk stays positive into two time-intervals. We will later take m large, so we may approximate as

$\frac{2f(0)f(y)/m \times \sqrt{\frac{2}{\pi}}f(y)/\sqrt{n-m}\times \mathbb{P}(S_m\in\mathrm{d}y) } { \sqrt{\frac{2}{\pi}}f(0)/\sqrt{n}}\stackrel{n\rightarrow\infty}=\frac{2f(y)^2}{m}\mathbb{P}(S_m\in\mathrm{d}y).$

This final probability emphasises that as $m\rightarrow\infty$ we only really have to consider $y=\Theta(\sqrt{m})$, so set $y=z\sqrt{m}$, and we obtain

$\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\mathbb{P}(\frac{S_m}{\sqrt{m}}\in\mathrm{d}z\,\big|\, S_k\ge 0,\,k=1,\ldots,n)$

$\sim \sqrt{m}\cdot\frac{2z^2m}{m}\cdot \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}\frac{1}{\sqrt{m}}e^{-z^2/2} = \sqrt{\frac{2}{\pi}}z^2 e^{-z^2/2}.$

This is precisely the entrance law of the 3-dimensional Bessel process, usually denoted $R$. This process is invariant under time-rescaling in the same fashion as Brownian motion. Indeed, one representation of R is as the radial part of a three-dimensional Brownian motion, given by independent BMs in each coordinate. (See [Pi75] for explanation of the relation to ‘BM conditioned to stay non-negative’.) We could complete the analogy by showing that $q_n(x,y)$ converges to the transition density of R as well. (Cf the prelude to Theorem 2.2 of [B-JD05].)

Final remarks

The order of taking limits is truly crucial. We can also obtain a distributional scaling limit at time n under conditioning to stay non-negative up to time n. But then this is the size-biased normal distribution $\sim ze^{-z^2/2}$ (the Rayleigh distribution), rather than the square-size-biased normal distribution we say in this setting. And we can exactly see why. Relative to the normal distribution which applies in the absence of conditioning, we require size-biasing to account for the walk staying positive up to time m, and then also size-biasing to account for the walk staying positive for the rest of time (or up to n in the $n\rightarrow\infty$ limit if you prefer).

The asymptotics for $q_n(x,y)$ were the crucial step, for which only heuristics are present in this post. It remains the case that estimates of this kind form the crucial step in other more exotic conditioning scenarios. This is immediately visible (even if the random walk notation is rather exotic) in, for example, Proposition 2.2 of [CHL17], of which we currently require a further level of generalisation.

References

[Bo76] – Bolthausen – On a functional central limit theorem for random walks conditioned to stay positive

[B-JD05] – Bryn-Jones, Doney – A functional limit theorem for random walk conditioned to stay non-negative

[CHL17] – Cortines, Hartung, Louidor – The structure of extreme level sets in branching Brownian motion

[Ig74] – Iglehart – Functional central limit theorems for random walks conditioned to stay positive

[Pi75] – Pitman – One-dimensional Brownian motion and the three-dimensional Bessel process

# Random walks conditioned to stay positive

In this post, I’m going to discuss some of the literature concerning the question of conditioning a simple random walk to lie above a line with fixed gradient. A special case of this situation is conditioning to stay non-negative. Some notation first. Let $(S_n)_{n\ge 0}$ be a random walk with IID increments, with distribution X. Take $\mu$ to be the expectation of these increments, and we’ll assume that the variance $\sigma^2$ is finite, though at times we may need to enforce slightly stronger regularity conditions.

(Although simple symmetric random walk is a good example for asymptotic heuristics, in general we also assume that if the increments are discrete they don’t have parity-based support, or any other arithmetic property that prevents local limit theorems holding.)

We will investigate the probability that $S_n\ge 0$ for n=0,1,…,N, particularly for large N. For ease of notation we write $T=\inf\{n\ge 0\,:\, S_n<0\}$ for the hitting time of the negative half-plane. Thus we are interested in $S_n$ conditioned on T>N, or T=N, mindful that these might not be the same. We will also discuss briefly to what extent we can condition on $T=\infty$.

In the first paragraph, I said that this is a special case of conditioning SRW to lie above a line with fixed gradient. Fortunately, all the content of the general case is contained in the special case. We can repose the question of $S_n$ conditioned to stay above $n\alpha$ until step N by the question of $S_n-n\alpha$ (which, naturally, has drift $\mu-\alpha$) conditioned to stay non-negative until step N, by a direct coupling.

Applications

Simple random walk is a perfectly interesting object to study in its own right, and this is a perfectly natural question to ask about it. But lots of probabilistic models can be studied via naturally embedded SRWs, and it’s worth pointing out a couple of applications to other probabilistic settings (one of which is the reason I was investigating this literature).

In many circumstances, we can desribe random trees and random graphs by an embedded random walk, such as an exploration process, as described in several posts during my PhD, such as here and here. The exploration process of a Galton-Watson branching tree is a particularly good example, since the exploration process really is simple random walk, unlike in, for example, the Erdos-Renyi random graph G(N,p), where the increments are only approximately IID. In this setting, the increments are given by the offspring distribution minus one, and the hitting time of -1 is the total population size of the branching process. So if the expectation of the offspring distribution is at most 1, then the event that the size of the tree is large is an atypical event, corresponding to delayed extinction. Whereas if the expectation is greater than one, then it is an event with limiting positive probability. Indeed, with positive probability the exploration process never hits -1, corresponding to survival of the branching tree. There are plenty of interesting questions about the structure of a branching process tree conditional on having atypically large size, including the spine decomposition of Kesten [KS], but the methods described in this post can be used to quantify the probability, or at least the scale of the probability of this atypical event.

In my current research, I’m studying a random walk embedded in a construction of the infinite-volume DGFF pinned at zero, as introduced by Biskup and Louidor [BL]. The random walk controls the gross behaviour of the field on annuli with dyadically-growing radii. Anyway, in this setting the random walk has Gaussian increments. (In fact, there is a complication because the increments aren’t exactly IID, but that’s definitely not a problem at this level of exposition.) The overall field is decomposed as a sum of the random walk, plus independent DGFFs with Dirichlet boundary conditions on each of the annuli, plus asymptotically negligible corrections from a ‘binding field’. Conditioning that this pinned field be non-negative up to the Kth annulus corresponds to conditioning the random walk to stay above the magnitude of the minimum of each successive annular DGFF. (These minima are random, but tightly concentrated around their expectations.)

Conditioning on $\{T > N\}$

When we condition on $\{T>N\}$, obviously the resulting distribution (of the process) is a mixture of the distributions we obtain by conditioning on each of $\{T=N+1\}, \{T=N+2\},\ldots$. Shortly, we’ll condition on $\{T=N\}$ itself, but first it’s worth establishing how to relate the two options. That is, conditional on $\{T>N\}$, what is the distribution of T?

Firstly, when $\mu>0$, this event always has positive probability, since $\mathbb{P}(T=\infty)>0$. So as $N\rightarrow\infty$, the distribution of the process conditional on $\{T>N\}$ converges to the distribution of the process conditional on survival. So we’ll ignore this for now.

In the case $\mu\le 0$, everything is encapsulated in the tail of the probabilities $\mathbb{P}(T=N)$, and these tails are qualitatively different in the cases $\mu=0$ and $\mu<0$.

When $\mu=0$, then $\mathbb{P}(T=N)$ decays polynomially in N. In the special case where $S_n$ is simple symmetric random walk (and N has the correct parity), we can check this just by an application of Stirling’s formula to count paths with this property. By contrast, when $\mu<0$, even demanding $S_N=-1$ is a large deviations event in the sense of Cramer’s theorem, and so the probability decays exponentially with N. Mogulskii’s theorem gives a large deviation principle for random walks to lie above a line defined on the scale N. The crucial fact here is that the probabilistic cost of staying positive until N has the same exponent as the probabilistic cost of being positive at N. Heuristically, we think of spreading the non-expected behaviour of the increments uniformly through the process, at only polynomial cost once we’ve specified the multiset of values taken by the increments. So, when $\mu<0$, we have

$\mathbb{P}(T\ge(1+\epsilon)N) \ll \mathbb{P}(T= N).$

Therefore, conditioning on $\{T\ge N\}$ in fact concentrates T on N+o(N). Whereas by contrast, when $\mu=0$, conditioning on $\{T\ge N\}$ gives a nontrivial limit in distribution for T/N, supported on $[1,\infty)$.

A related problem is the value taken by $S_N$, conditional on {T>N}. It’s a related problem because the event {T>N} depends only on the process up to time N, and so given the value of $S_N$, even with the conditioning, after time N, the process is just an unconditioned RW. This is a classic application of the Markov property, beloved in several guises by undergraduate probability exam designers.

Anyway, Iglehart [Ig2] shows an invariance principle for $S_N | T>N$ when $\mu<0$, without scaling. That is $S_N=\Theta(1)$, though the limiting distribution depends on the increment distribution in a sense that is best described through Laplace transforms. If we start a RW with negative drift from height O(1), then it hits zero in time O(1), so in fact this shows that conditonal on $\{T\ge N\}$, we have T= N +O(1) with high probability. When $\mu=0$, we have fluctuations on a scale $\sqrt{N}$, as shown earlier by Iglehart [Ig1]. Again, thinking about the central limit theorem, this fits the asymptotic description of T conditioned on T>N.

Conditioning on $T=N$

In the case $\mu=0$, conditioning on T=N gives

$\left[\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}S(\lfloor Nt\rfloor ) ,t\in[0,1] \right] \Rightarrow W^+(t),$ (*)

where $W^+$ is a standard Brownian excursion on [0,1]. This is shown roughly simultaneously in [Ka] and [DIM]. This is similar to Donsker’s theorem for the unconditioned random walk, which converges after rescaling to Brownian motion in this sense, or Brownian bridge if you condition on $S_N=0$. Skorohod’s proof for Brownian bridge [Sk] approximates the event $\{S_N=0\}$ by $\{S_N\in[-\epsilon \sqrt{N},+\epsilon \sqrt{N}]\}$, since the probability of this event is bounded away from zero. Similarly, but with more technicalities, a proof of convergence conditional on T=N can approximate by $\{S_m\ge 0, m\in[\delta N,(1-\delta)N], S_N\in [-\epsilon \sqrt{N},+\epsilon\sqrt{N}]\}$. The technicalities here emerge since T, the first return time to zero, is not continuous as a function of continuous functions. (Imagine a sequence of processes $f^N$ for which $f^N(x)\ge 0$ on [0,1] and $f^N(\frac12)=\frac{1}{N}$.)

Once you condition on $T=N$, the mean $\mu$ doesn’t really matter for this scaling limit. That is, so long as variance is finite, for any $\mu\in\mathbb{R}$, the same result (*) holds, although a different proof is in general necessary. See [BD] and references for details. However, this is particularly clear in the case where the increments are Gaussian. In this setting, we don’t actually need to take a scaling limit. The distribution of Gaussian *random walk bridge* doesn’t depend on the mean of the increments. This is related to the fact that a linear transformation of a Gaussian is Gaussian, and can be seen by examining the joint density function directly.

Conditioning on $T=\infty$

When $\mu>0$, the event $\{T=\infty\}$ occurs with positive probability, so it is well-defined to condition on it. When $\mu\le 0$, this is not the case, and so we have to be more careful.

First, an observation. Just for clarity, let’s take $\mu<0$, and condition on $\{T>N\}$, and look at the distribution of $S_{\epsilon N}$, where $\epsilon>0$ is small. This is approximately given by

$\frac{S_{\epsilon N}}{\sqrt{N}}\stackrel{d}{\approx}W^+(\epsilon).$

Now take $\epsilon\rightarrow\infty$ and consider the RHS. If instead of the Brownian excursion $W^+$, we instead had Brownian motion, we could specify the distribution exactly. But in fact, we can construct Brownian excursion as the solution to an SDE:

$\mathrm{d}W^+(t) = \left[\frac{1}{W^+(t)} - \frac{W^+(t)}{1-t}\right] \mathrm{d}t + \mathrm{d}B(t),\quad t\in(0,1)$ (**)

for B a standard Brownian motion. I might return in the next post to why this is valid. For now, note that the first drift term pushes the excursion away from zero, while the second term brings it back to zero as $t\rightarrow 1$.

From this, the second drift term is essentially negligible if we care about scaling $W^+(\epsilon)$ as $\epsilon\rightarrow 0$, and we can say that $W^+(\epsilon)=\Theta(\sqrt{\epsilon})$.

So, returning to the random walk, we have

$\frac{S_{\epsilon N}}{\sqrt{\epsilon N}}\stackrel{d}{\approx} \frac{W^+(\epsilon)}{\sqrt{\epsilon}} = \Theta(1).$

At a heuristic level, it’s tempting to try ‘taking $N\rightarrow\infty$ while fixing $\epsilon N$‘, to conclude that there is a well-defined scaling limit for the RW conditioned to stay positive forever. But we came up with this estimate by taking $N\rightarrow\infty$ and then $\epsilon\rightarrow 0$ in that order. So while the heuristic might be convincing, this is not the outline of a valid argument in any way. However, the SDE representation of $W^+$ in the $\epsilon\rightarrow 0$ regime is useful. If we drop the second drift term in (**), we define the three-dimensional Bessel process, which (again, possibly the subject of a new post) is the correct scaling limit we should be aiming for.

Finally, it’s worth observing that the limit $\{T=\infty\}=\lim_{N\rightarrow\infty} \{T>N\}$ is a monotone limit, and so further tools are available. In particular, if we know that the trajectories of the random walk satisfy the FKG property, then we can define this limit directly. It feels intuitively clear that random walks should satisfy the FKG inequality (in the sense that if a RW is large somewhere, it’s more likely to be large somewhere else). You can do a covariance calculation easily, but a standard way to show the FKG inequality applies is by verifying the FKG lattice condition, and unless I’m missing something, this is clear (though a bit annoying to check) when the increments are Gaussian, but not in general. Even so, defining this monotone limit does not tell you that it is non-degenerate (ie almost-surely finite), for which some separate estimates would be required.

A final remark: in a recent post, I talked about the Skorohod embedding, as a way to construct any centered random walk where the increments have finite variance as a stopped Brownian motion. One approach to conditioning a random walk to lie above some discrete function is to condition the corresponding Brownian motion to lie above some continuous extension of that function. This is a slightly stronger conditioning, and so any approach of this kind must quantify how much stronger. In Section 4 of [BL], the authors do this for the random walk associated with the DGFF conditioned to lie above a polylogarithmic curve.

References

[BD] – Bertoin, Doney – 1994 – On conditioning a random walk to stay nonnegative

[BL] – Biskup, Louidor – 2016 – Full extremal process, cluster law and freezing for two-dimensional discrete Gaussian free field

[DIM] – Durrett, Iglehart, Miller – 1977 – Weak convergence to Brownian meander and Brownian excursion

[Ig1] – Iglehart – 1974 – Functional central limit theorems for random walks conditioned to stay positive

[Ig2] – Iglehart – 1974 – Random walks with negative drift conditioned to stay positive

[Ka] – Kaigh – 1976 – An invariance principle for random walk conditioned by a late return to zero

[KS] – Kesten, Stigum – 1966 – A limit theorem for multidimensional Galton-Watson processes

[Sk] – Skorohod – 1955 – Limit theorems for stochastic processes with independent increments

# Skorohod embedding

Background

Suppose we are given a standard Brownian motion $(B_t)$, and a stopping time T. Then, so long as T satisfies one of the regularity conditions under which the Optional Stopping Theorem applies, we know that $\mathbb{E}[B_T]=0$. (See here for a less formal introduction to OST.) Furthermore, since $B_t^2-t$ is a martingale, $\mathbb{E}[B_T^2]=\mathbb{E}[T]$, so if the latter is finite, so is the former.

Now, using the strong Markov property of Brownian motion, we can come up with a sequence of stopping times $0=T_0, T_1, T_2,\ldots$ such that the increments $T_k-T_{k-1}$ are IID with the same distribution as T. Then $0,B_{T_1},B_{T_2},\ldots$ is a centered random walk. By taking T to be the hitting time of $\{-1,+1\}$, it is easy to see that we can embed simple random walk in a Brownian motion using this approach.

Embedding simple random walk in Brownian motion.

The Skorohod embedding question asks: can all centered random walks be constructed in this fashion, by stopping Brownian motion at a sequence of stopping time? With the strong Markov property, it immediately reduces the question of whether all centered finite-variance distributions X can be expressed as $B_T$ for some integrable stopping time T.

The answer to this question is yes, and much of what follows is drawn from, or at least prompted by Obloj’s survey paper which details the problem and rich history of the many approaches to its solution over the past seventy years.

Applications and related things

The relationship between random walks and Brownian motion is a rich one. Donsker’s invariance principle asserts that Brownian motion appears as the scaling limit of a random walk. Indeed, one can construct Brownian motion itself as the limit of a sequence of consistent random walks with normal increments on an increasingly dense set of times. Furthermore, random walks are martingales, and we know that continuous, local martingales can be expressed as a (stochastically) time-changed Brownian motion, from the Dubins-Schwarz theorem.

The Skorohod embedding theorem can be used to prove results about random walks with general distribution by proving the corresponding result for Brownian motion, and checking that the construction of the sequence of stopping times has the right properties to allow the result to be carried back to the original setting. It obviously also gives a coupling between a individual random walk and a Brownian motion which may be useful in some contexts, as well as a coupling between any pair of random walks. This is useful in proving results for random walks which are much easier for special cases of the distribution. For example, when the increments are Gaussian, or when there are combinatorial approaches to a problem about simple random walk. At the moment no aspect of this blog schedule is guaranteed, but I plan to talk about the law of the iterated logarithm shortly, whose proof is approachable in both of these settings, as well as for Brownian motion, and Skorohod embedding provides the route to the general proof.

At the end, we will briefly compare some other ways to couple a random walk and a Brownian motion.

One thing we could do is sample a copy of X independently from the Brownian motion, then declare $T= \tau_{X}:= \inf\{t\ge 0: B_t=X\}$, the hitting time of (random value) X. But recall that unfortunately $\tau_x$ has infinite expectation for all non-zero x, so this doesn’t fit the conditions required to use OST.

Skorohod’s original method is described in Section 3.1 of Obloj’s notes linked above. The method is roughly to pair up positive values taken by X appropriately with negative values taken by X in a clever way. If we have a positive value b and a negative value a, then $\tau_{a,b}$, the first hitting time of $\mathbb{R}\backslash (a,b)$ is integrable. Then we choose one of these positive-negative pairs according to the projection of the distribution of X onto the pairings, and let T be the hitting time of this pair of values. The probability of hitting b conditional on hitting {a,b} is easy to compute (it’s $\frac{-a}{b-a}$) so we need to have chosen our pairs so that the ‘probability’ of hitting b (ie the density) comes out right. In particular, this method has to start from continuous distributions X, and treat atoms in the distribution of X separately.

The case where the distribution X is symmetric (that is $X\stackrel{d}=-X$) is particularly clear, as then the pairs should be $(-x,x)$.

However, it feels like there is enough randomness in Brownian motion already, and subsequent authors showed that indeed it wasn’t necessary to introduce extra randomness to provide a solution.

One might ask whether it’s possible to generate the distribution on the set of pairs (as above) out of the Brownian motion itself, but independently from all the hitting times. It feels like it might be possible to make the distribution on the pairs measurable with respect to

$\mathcal{F}_{0+} = \bigcap\limits_{t>0} \mathcal{F}_t,$

the sigma-algebra of events determined by limiting behaviour as $t\rightarrow 0$ (which is independent of hitting times). But of course, unfortunately $\mathcal{F}_{0+}$ has a zero-one law, so it’s not possible to embed non-trivial distributions there.

Dubins solution

The exemplar for solutions without extra randomness is due to Dubins, shortly after Skorohod’s original argument. The idea is to express the distribution X as the almost sure limit of a martingale. We first use the hitting time of a pair of points to ‘decide’ whether we will end up positive or negative, and then given this information look at the hitting time (after this first time) of two subsequent points to ‘decide’ which of four regions of the real interval we end up in.

I’m going to use different notation to Obloj, corresponding more closely with how I ended up thinking about this method. We let

$a_+:= \mathbb{E}[X \,|\, X>0], \quad a_- := \mathbb{E}[X\,|\, X<0],$ (*)

and take $T_1 = \tau_{\{a_-,a_+\}}$. We need to check that

$\mathbb{P}\left( B_{T_1}=a_+\right) = \mathbb{P}\left(X>0\right),$

for this to have a chance of working. But we know that

$\mathbb{P}\left( B_{T_1}=a_+\right) = \frac{a_+}{a_+-a_-},$

and we can also attack the other side using (*) and the fact that $\mathbb{E}[X]=0$, using the law of total expectation:

$0=\mathbb{E}[X]=\mathbb{E}[X\,|\, X>0] \mathbb{P}(X>0) + \mathbb{E}[X\,|\,X<0]\mathbb{P}(X<0) = a_+ \mathbb{P}(X>0) + a_- \left(1-\mathbb{P}(X>0) \right),$

$\Rightarrow\quad \mathbb{P}(X>0)=\frac{a_+}{a_+-a_-}.$

Now we define

$a_{++}=\mathbb{E}[X \,|\, X>a_+],\quad a_{+-}=\mathbb{E}[X\,|\, 0

and similarly $a_{-+},a_{--}$. So then, conditional on $B_{T_1}=a_+$, we take

$T_2:= \inf_{t\ge T_1}\left\{ B_t\not\in (a_{+-},a_{++}) \right\},$

and similarly conditional on $B_{T_1}=a_-$. By an identical argument to the one we have just deployed, we have $\mathbb{E}\left[B_{T_2} \,|\,\mathcal{F}_{T_1} \right] = B_{T_1}$ almost surely. So, although the $a_{+-+}$ notation now starts to get very unwieldy, it’s clear we can keep going in this way to get a sequence of stopping times $0=T_0,T_1,T_2,\ldots$ where $B_{T_n}$ determines which of the $2^n$ regions of the real line any limit $\lim_{m\rightarrow\infty} B_{T_m}$ should lie in.

A bit of work is required to check that the almost sure limit $T_n\rightarrow T$ is almost surely finite, but once we have this, it is clear that $B_{T_n}\rightarrow B_T$ almost surely, and $B_T$ has the distribution required.

We want to know how close we can make this coupling between a centered random walk with variance 1, and a standard Brownian motion. Here, ‘close’ means uniformly close in probability. For large times, the typical difference between one of the stopping times $0,T_1,T_2,\ldots$ in the Skorohod embedding and its expectation (recall $\mathbb{E}[T_k]=k$) is $\sqrt{n}$. So, constructing the random walk $S_0,S_1,S_2,\ldots$ from the Brownian motion via Skorohod embedding leads to

$\left |S_k - B_k \right| = \omega(n^{1/4}),$

for most values of $k\le n$. Strassen (1966) shows that the true scale of the maximum

$\max_{k\le n} \left| S_k - B_k \right|$

is slightly larger than this, with some extra powers of $\log n$ and $\log\log n$ as one would expect.

The Komlos-Major-Tusnady coupling is a way to do a lot better than this, in the setting where the distribution of the increments has a finite MGF near 0. Then, there exists a coupling of the random walk and the Brownian motion such that

$\max_{k\le n}\left|S_k- B_k\right| = O(\log n).$

That is, there exists C such that

$\left[\max_{k\le n} \left |S_k-B_k\right| - C\log n\right] \vee 0$

is a tight family of distributions, indeed with uniform exponential tail. To avoid digressing infinitely far from my original plan to discuss the proof of the law of iterated logarithm for general distributions, I’ll stop here. I found it hard to find much coverage of the KMT result apart from the challenging original paper, and many versions expressed in the language of empirical processes, which are similar to random walks in many ways relevant to convergence and this coupling, but not for Skorohod embedding. So, here is a link to some slides from a talk by Chatterjee which I found helpful in getting a sense of the history, and some of the modern approaches to this type of normal approximation problem.

# DGFF 2 – Boundary conditions and Gibbs-Markov property

In the previous post, we defined the Discrete Gaussian Free Field, and offered some motivation via the discrete random walk bridge. In particular, when the increments of the random walk are chosen to be Gaussian, many natural calculations are straightforward, since Gaussian processes are well-behaved under conditioning and under linear transformations.

Non-zero boundary conditions

In the definition of the DGFF given last time, we demanded that $h\equiv 0$ on $\partial D$. But the model is perfectly well-defined under more general boundary conditions.

It’s helpful to recall again the situation with random walk and Brownian bridge. If we want a Brownian motion which passes through (0,0) and (1,s), we could repeat one construction for Brownian bridge, by taking a standard Brownian motion and conditioning (modulo probability zero technicalities) on passing through level s at time 1. But alternatively, we could set

$B^{\mathrm{drift-br}}(t) = B(t)+ t(s-B(1)),\quad t\in[0,1],$

or equivalently

$B^{\mathrm{drift-br}}(t)=B^{\mathrm{br}}(t)+ st, \quad t\in[0,1].$

That is, a Brownian bridge with drift can be obtain from a centered Brownian bridge by a linear transformation, and so certainly remains a Gaussian process. And exactly the same holds for a discrete Gaussian bridge: if we want non-zero values at the endpoints, we can obtain this distribution by taking the standard centred bridge and applying a linear transformation.

We can see how this works directly at the level of density functions. If we take $0=Z_0,Z_1,\ldots,Z_{N-1},Z_N=0$ a centred Gaussian bridge, then the density of $Z=\mathbf{z}\in \mathbb{R}^{N+1}$ is proportional to

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=z_N=0\}\exp\left( -\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right).$ (3)

So rewriting $z_i= y_i- ki$ (where we might want $k=s/N$ to fit the previous example), the sum within the exponent rearranges as

$-\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (y_i-y_{i-1} - k)^2 = -\frac12 \sum_{i=1}^N (y_i-y_{i-1})^2 - 2k(y_N-y_0)+ Nk^2.$

So when the values at the endpoints $z_0,z_n,y_0,y_N$ are fixed, this middle term is a constant, as is the final term, and thus the density of the linearly transformed bridge has exactly the same form as the original one.

In two or more dimensions, the analogue of adding a linear function is to add a harmonic function. First, some notation. Let $\varphi$ be any function on $\partial D$. Then there is a unique harmonic extension of $\varphi$, for which $\nabla \varphi=0$ everywhere on D, the interior of the domain. Recall that $\nabla$ is the discrete graph Laplacian defined up to a constant by

$(\nabla \varphi) _x = \sum\limits_{x\sim y} \varphi_x - \varphi_y.$

If we want $h^D$ instead to have boundary values $\varphi$, it’s enough to replace $h^D$ with $h^D+\varphi$. Then, in the density for the DGFF ( (1) in the previous post), the term in the exponential becomes (ignoring the $\frac{1}{4d}$ )

$-\sum\limits_{x\sim y} \left[ (h^D_x-h^D_y)^2 + (\varphi_x-\varphi_y)^2 +2(h^D_x - h^D_y)(\varphi_x-\varphi_y)\right].$

For each $x\in D$, on taking this sum over its neighbours $y\in \bar D$, the final term vanishes (since $\varphi$ is harmonic), while the second term is just a constant. So the density of the transformed field, which we’ll call $h^{D,\varphi}$ is proportional to (after removing the constant arising from the second term above)

$\mathbf{1}\left\{h^{D,\varphi}_x = \varphi_x,\, x\in\partial D\right\} \exp\left( -\frac{1}{4d} \sum\limits_{x\sim y} \left( h^{D,\varphi}_x - h^{D,\varphi}_y \right)^2 \right).$

So $h^{D,\varphi}:= h^D + \varphi$ satisfies the conditions for the DGFF on D with non-zero boundary conditions $\varphi$.

Harmonic functions and RW – a quick review

Like the covariances in DGFF, harmonic functions on D are related to simple random walk on D stopped on $\partial D$. (I’m not claiming a direct connection right now.) We can define the harmonic extension $\varphi$ to an interior point x by taking $\mathbb{P}_x$ to be the law of SRW $x=Z_0,Z_1,Z_2,\ldots$ started from x, and then setting

$\varphi(x):= \mathbb{E}\left[ \varphi_{\tau_{\partial d}} \right],$

where $\tau_{\partial D}$ is the first time that the random walk hits the boundary.

Inverse temperature – a quick remark

In the original definition of the density of the DGFF, there is the option to add a constant $\beta>0$ within the exponential term so the density is proportional to

$\exp\left(-\beta \sum\limits_{x\sim y} (h_x-h_y)^2 \right).$

With zero boundary conditions, the effect of this is straightforward, as varying $\beta$ just rescales the values taken by the field. But with non-zero boundary conditions, the effect is instead to vary the magnitude of the fluctuations of the values of the field around the (unique) harmonic function on the domain with those BCs. In particular, when $\beta\rightarrow \infty$, the field is ‘reluctant to be far from harmonic’, and so $h^D \Rightarrow \varphi$.

This parameter $\beta$ is called inverse temperature. So low temperature corresponds to high $\beta$, and high stability, which fits some physical intuition.

A Markov property

For a discrete (Gaussian) random walk, the Markov property says that conditional on a given value at a given time, the trajectory of the process before this time is independent of the trajectory afterwards. The discrete Gaussian bridge is similar. Suppose we have as before $0=Z_0,Z_1,\ldots, Z_N=0$ a centred Gaussian bridge, and condition that $Z_k=y$, for $k\in\{1,\ldots,N-1\}$, and $y\in\mathbb{R}$. With this conditioning, the density (3) splits as a product

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=z_N=0, z_k=y\}\exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right) =$

$\mathbf{1}\{z_0=0,z_k=y\} \exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=1}^k (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right) \cdot \mathbf{1}\{z_k=y,z_N=0\} \exp\left(-\frac12 \sum\limits_{i=k+1}^N (z_i-z_{i-1})^2 \right).$

Therefore, with this conditioning, the discrete Gaussian bridge splits into a pair of independent discrete Gaussian bridges with drift. (The same would hold if the original process had drift too.)

The situation for the DGFF is similar, though rather than focusing on the condition, it makes sense to start by focusing on the sub-domain of interest. Let $A\subset D$, and take $B=\bar D\backslash A$. So in particular $\partial A\subset B$.

Then we have that conditional on $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$, the restricted fields $h^D\big|_{B\backslash \partial A}$ and $h^D\big|_A$ are independent. Furthermore, $h^D\big|_A$ has the distribution of the DGFF on A, with boundary condition given by $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$. As in the discrete bridge, this follows just by splitting the density. Every gradient term corresponds to an edge in the underlying graph that lies either entirely inside $\bar A$ or entirely inside B. This holds for a general class of Gibbs models where the Hamiltonian depends only on the sum of some function of the heights (taken to be constant in this ‘free’ model) and the sum of some function of their nearest-neighbour gradients.

One additional and useful interpretation is that if we only care about the field on the restricted region A, the dependence of $h^D\big|_A$ on $h^D\big|_{D\backslash A}$ comes only through $h^D\big|_{\partial A}$. But more than that, it comes only through the (random) harmonic function which extends the (random) values taken on the boundary of A to the whole of A. So, if $h^A$ is an independent DGFF on A with zero boundary conditions, we can construct the DGFF $h^D$ from its value on $D\backslash A$ via

$h^D_x \stackrel{d}= h^A_x + \varphi^{h^D\big|_{\partial A}},$

where $\varphi^{h^D\big|_{\partial A}}$ is the unique harmonic extension of the (random) values taken by $h^D$ on $\partial A$ to $\bar A$.

This Markov property is crucial to much of the analysis to come. There are several choices of the restricted domain which come up repeatedly. In the next post we’ll look at how much one can deduce by taking A to be the even vertices in D (recalling that every integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$ is bipartite), and then taking A to be a finer sublattice within D. We’ll use this to get some good bounds on the probability that the DGFF is positive on the whole of D. Perhaps later we’ll look at a ring decomposition of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ consisting of annuli spreading out from a fixed origin. Then the distribution of the field at this origin can be considered, via the final idea discussed above, as the limit of an infinite sequence of random harmonic functions given by the values taken by the field at increasingly large radius from the origin. Defining the DGFF on the whole lattice depends on the existence or otherwise of this local limit.

# Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

A large part of my summer has been spent proving some technical results pertaining to the convergence of some functionals of a critical Frozen Percolation process. This has been worthwhile, but hasn’t involved a large amount of reading around anything in particular, which has probably contributed to the lack of posts in recent months. Perhaps a mixture of that and general laziness?

Anyway, it turns out that the limit of the discrete processes under consideration is the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The sense in which this limit holds (or at least, for now, is conjectured to hold) is something for another article. However, I thought it would be worth writing a bit about this particular process and why it is interesting.

The O-U process is described by the SDE

$dX_t=-\beta (X_t-\mu)dt+\sigma dW_t,$

where W is a standard Brownian motion. We think of $\mu$ as the ‘mean’. The extent to which this behaves as a mean will be discussed shortly. The process is then mean-reverting, in the sense that the drift is directed against deviations of the process away from this mean. The parameter $\beta$ measures the extent of this mean reversion, while as usual $\sigma$ controls the magnitude of the Brownian noise.

The motivation for considering mean-reverting processes is considerable. One measure of this is how many equations with articles on Wikipedia turn out to be precisely this Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with different context or notation. In most cases, the motivation arises because Brownian motion is for some reason unsuitable to take as a canonical random process. We will see why the O-U process is somehow the next most canonical choice for a random process.

In physics, it is sometimes unsatisfactory to model the trajectory of a particle with Brownian motion (even though this motivated the name…) as the velocities are undefined (see this post from ages ago), or infinite, depending on your definition of velocity. Using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model the velocity of a particle is often a satisfactory alternative. It is not unreasonable that there should be a mean velocity, presumably zero. The mean reversion models a frictional force from the underlying medium, while the Brownian noise describes random collisions with similar particles.

In financial applications, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model has been applied, apparently under the title of the Vasicek model since the 70s to describe quantities such as interest rates where there is some underlying reason to ban indefinite growth, and require mean reversion. Another setting might be a commodity which, because of external driving factors, has over the relevant time-scale well-defined mean value, around which mean-reverting fluctuations on the observed time-scale can be described. As with other financial models, it is undesirable for a process to take negative values. This can be fixed by taking a positive mean, then setting the volatility to be state dependent, decaying to zero as the state tends to zero, so for small values, the positive drift dominates. I don’t fully understand why patching this aspect is significantly more important than patching any other non-realistic properties of the model, but the resulting SDE is, at least in one particular case where the volatility is $\sqrt{X_t}$, called the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model.

Anyway, a mathematical reason to pay particular attention to this Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is the following. It is the unique family of continuous Markov processes to have a stationary Gaussian distribution. It is the mean-reverting property that is key. There is no chance of Brownian motion having any stationary distribution, let alone a Gaussian one. If this isn’t clear, you can convince yourself by thinking of the stationary distribution of SRW on $\mathbb{Z}$. Since the process is space-homogeneous, the only stationary measure is the uniform measure.

I want to focus on one particular property of the O-U process, through which some other aspects will be illuminated. If we take $\sigma=\beta$ and let $\beta\rightarrow\infty$, then the stationary processes converge to white noise.

First though, we should note this is perhaps the easiest SDE to solve explicitly. We consider $X_t e^{\theta t}$, and applying Ito’s lemma rapidly gives

$X_t=\mu + (X_0-\mu)e^{-\beta t}+\sigma\int_0^t e^{-\beta(t-s)}dW_s.$

W is Gaussian so the distribution of $X_t$ conditional on $X_0=x_0$ is also Gaussian, and since W is centred we can read off the expectation. Applying the Ito isometry then gives the variance. In conclusion:

$X_t\stackrel{d}{=}\mathcal{N}(\mu+(x_0-\mu)e^{-\beta t}, \frac{\sigma^2}{\beta}(1-e^{-2\beta t})).$

In particular, note that the variation has no dependence on $x_0$. So as t grows to infinity, this converges to $\mathcal{N}(\mu, \frac{\sigma^2}{\beta})$. This is, unsurprisingly, the stationary distribution of the process.

To address the white noise convergence, we need to consider $\text{Cov}(X_0,X_t)$ in stationarity. Let’s assume WLOG that $\mu=0$ so most of the expectations will vanish. We obtain

$\text{Cov}(X_0,X_t)=\mathbb{E}[X_0X_t]=\mathbb{E}_{x_0}\left[\mathbb{E}[X_t| X_0=x_0]\right]=\mathbb{E}[X_0^2 e^{-\beta t}]= \frac{sigma^2}{2\beta}2^{-\beta t}.$

If we want, the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations work particularly nicely here, and we are able to derive a PDE for the evolution of the density function, though obviously this is very related to the result above. This PDE is known as the Fokker-Planck equation.

So, in particular, when $\sigma=\beta\rightarrow \infty$, this covariance tends to 0. I’m not purporting that this constitutes a proof that the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes converge as processes to white noise. It’s not obvious how to define process convergence, not least because there’s flexibility about how to view white noise as a process. One doesn’t really want to define the value of white noise at a particular time, but you can consider the covariance of integrals of white noise over disjoint intervals as a limit, in similar way to convergence of finite dimensional distributions.

The fact that taking $\beta=0$ gives Brownian motion, and this case gives white noise, intermediate versions of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process are sometimes referred to as coloured noise.

Finally, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process emerges as the scaling limit of mean-reverting discrete Markov chains, analogous to Brownian motion as the scaling limit of simple random walk. One particularly nice example is the Ehrenfest Urn model. We have two urns, and 2N balls. In each time step one of the 2N balls is chosen uniformly at random, and it is moved to the other urn. So a ball is more likely to be removed from an urn with more than N balls. We can view this as a model for molecules in, say a room, with a slightly porous division between them, eg a small hole. More complicated interface models in higher dimensions lead to fascinating PDEs, such as the famous KPZ equation, which are the subject of much ongoing interest in this area.

This result can be an application of the theory of convergence of Markov chains to SDEs pioneered by Stroock and Varadhan, about which more may follow very soon. In any case, it turns out that the fluctuations in the Ehrenfest Urn model are on the scale of $\sqrt{n}$, unsurprisingly, and are given by a centred Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Investigating this has reminded me how much I’ve forgotten, or perhaps how little I ever knew, about the technicalities of stochastic processes are their convergence results, so next up will probably be a summary of all the useful definitions and properties for this sort of analysis.

# Reflected Brownian Motion

A standard Brownian motion is space-homogeneous, meaning that the behaviour of $B_{T+t}-B_T$ does not depend on the value of $B_T$. By Donsker’s Theorem, such a Brownian motion is also the limit in a process space of any homogeneous random walk with zero-drift and constant variance, after suitable rescaling.

In many applications, however, we are interested in real-valued continuous-time Markov processes that are defined not on the whole of the real line, but on the half-line $\mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}$. So as BM is the fundamental real-valued continuous-time Markov process, we should ask how we might adjust it so that it stays non-negative. In particular, we want to clarify uniqueness, or at least be sure we have found all the sensible ways to make this adjustment, and also to consider how Donsker’s Theorem might work in this setting.

We should consider what properties we want this non-negative BM to have. Obviously, it should be non-negative, but it is also reasonable to demand that it looks exactly like BM everywhere except near 0. But since BM has a scale-invariance property, it is essentially meaningful to say ‘near 0’, so we instead demand that it looks exactly like BM everywhere except at 0. Apart from this, the only properties we want are that it is Markov and has continuous sample paths.

A starting point is so-called reflected Brownian motion, defined by $X_t:=|B_t|$. This is very natural and very convenient for analysis, but there are some problems. Firstly, this has the property that it looks like Brownian motion everywhere except 0 only because BM is space-homogeneous but also symmetric, in the sense that $B_t\stackrel{d}{=}-B_t$. This will be untrue for essentially any other process, so as a general method for how to keep stochastic processes positive, this will be useless. My second objection is a bit more subtle. If we consider this as an SDE, we get

$dX_t=\text{sign}(B_t)dB_t.$

This is a perfectly reasonable SDE but it is undesirable, because we have a function of B as coefficient on the RHS. Ideally, increments of X would be a function of X, and the increments of B, rather than the values of B. That is, we would expect $X_{t+\delta t}-X_t$ to depend on $X_t$ and on $(B_{t+s}-B_t, 0\le s\le \delta t)$, but not on $B_t$ itself, as that means we have to keep track of extra information while constructing X.

So we need an alternative method. One idea might be to add some non-negative process to the BM so that the sum stays non-negative. If this process is deterministic and finite, there there is some positive probability that the sum will eventually be negative, so this won’t do. We are looking therefore so a process which depends on the BM. Obviously we could take $\max(-B_t,0)$, but this sum would then spend macroscopic intervals of time at 0, and these intervals would have the Raleigh distribution (for Brownian excursions) rather than the exponential distribution, hence the process given by the sum would not be memoryless and Markov.

The natural alternative is to look for an increasing process $A_t$, and then it makes sense to talk about the minimal increasing process that has the desired property. A moment’s thought suggests that $A_t=-min_{s\le t}B_t$ satisfies this. So we have the decomposition

$B_t=-A_t+S_t,$

where $S_t$ is the height of B above its running minimum. So S is an ideal alternative definition of reflecting BM. In particular, when B is away from its minimum, $dB_t=dS_t$, so this has the property that it evolves exactly as the driving Brownian motion.

What we have done is to decompose a general continuous process into the sum of a decreasing continuous process and a non-negative process. This is known as the Skorohod problem, and was the subject of much interest, even in the deterministic case. Note that process A has the property that it is locally constant almost everywhere, and is continuous, yet non-constant. Unsurprisingly, since A only changes when the underlying BM is 0, A is continuous with respect to the local time process at 0. In fact, A is the local time process of the underlying Brownian motion, by comparison with the construction by direct reflection.

One alternative approach is to look instead at the generator of the process. Recall that the generator of a process is an operator on some space of functions, with $\mathcal{L}f$ giving the infinitissimal drift of $f(X_t)$. In the case of Brownian motion, the generator $(\mathcal{L}f)(x)=\frac12 f''(x)$ for bounded smooth functions f. This is equivalent to saying that

$f(X_t)-f(X_0)-\int_0^t \frac12 f''(X_s)ds$ (*)

is a martingale. This must hold also for reflected Brownian motion, whenever x is greater than 0. Alternatively, if the function f is zero in a small neighbourhood of 0, it should have the same generator with respect to reflected BM. Indeed, for a general smooth bounded function f, we can still consider the expression (*) with respect to reflected BM. We know this expression behaves as a martingale except when X is zero. If f'(0)>0, and T is some hitting time of 0, then $f(X_{T+\delta T})-f(X_T)\ge 0$, hence the expression (*) is a submartingale. So if we restrict attention to functions with f'(0)=0, the generator remains the same. Indeed, by patching together all such intervals, it can be argued that even if f'(0) is not zero,

$f(X_t)-f(X_0)-\int_0^t \frac12 f''(X_s)ds - f'(0)A_t$

is a martingale, where A is the local time process at zero.

I was aware when I started reading about this that there was another family of processes called ‘Sticky Brownian Motion’ that shared properties with Reflected BM, in that it behaves like standard BM away from zero, but is also constrained to the non-negative reals. I think this will get too long if I also talk about that here, so that can be postponed, and for now we consider reflected BM as a limit of reflected (or other) random walks, bearing in mind that there is at least one other candidate to be the limit.

Unsurprisingly, if we have a family of random walks constrained to the non-negative reals, that are zero-drift unit-variance away from 0, then if they converge as processes, the limit is Brownian away from zero, and non-negative. Note that “away from 0” means after rescaling. So the key aspect is behaviour near zero.

What is the drift of reflected BM at 0? We might suspect it is infinite because of the form of the generator, but we can calculate it directly. Given $X_0=0$, we have:

$\frac{\mathbb{E}X_t}{t}=\frac{\mathbb{E}|B_t|}{t}=\frac{\sqrt{t}\mathbb{E}|B_1|}{t},$

so letting $t\rightarrow 0$, we see indeed that the drift is infinite at 0.

For convergence of discrete processes, we really need the generators to converge. Typically we index the discrete-time processes by the time unit h, which tends to 0, and $b_h(x),a_h(x)$ are the rescaled drift and square-drift from x. We assume that we don’t see macroscopic jumps in the limit. For the case of simple random walk reflected at 0, it doesn’t matter exactly how we construct the joint limit in h and x, as the drift is uniform on x>0, but in general this does matter. I don’t want to discuss sticky BM right now, so it’s probably easiest to be vague and say that the discrete Markov processes converge to reflected BM so long they don’t spend more time than expected near 0 in the limit, as the title ‘sticky’ might suggest.

The two ways in which this can happen is if the volatility term $a_h(x)$ is too small, in which case the process looks almost deterministic near 0, or if the drift doesn’t increase fast enough. And indeed, this leads to two conditions. The first is straightforward, if $a_h(x)$ is bounded below, in the sense that $\liminf_{h,x\rightarrow 0} a_h(x)\ge C>0$, then we have convergence to reflected BM. Alternatively, the only danger can arise down those subsequences where $a_h(x)\rightarrow 0$, so if we have that $b_h(x)\rightarrow +\infty$ whenever $h,x,a_h(x)\rightarrow 0$, then this convergence also holds.

Next time I’ll discuss what sticky BM means, what it doesn’t mean, why it isn’t easy to double the local time, and how to obtain sticky BM as a limit of discrete random walks in a similar way to the above.

REFERENCES

S. Varadhan – Chapter 16 from a Lecture Course at NYU can be found here.

# Multitype Branching Processes

One of the fundamental objects in classical probability theory is the Galton-Watson branching process. This is defined to be a model for the growth of a population, where each individual in a generation gives birth to some number (possibly zero) of offspring, who form the next generation. Crucially, the numbers of offspring of the individuals are IID, with the same distribution both within generations and between generations.

There are several ways one might generalise this, such as non-IID offspring distributions, or pairs of individuals producing some number of offspring, but here we consider the situation where each individual has some type, and different types have different offspring distributions. Note that if there are K types, say, then the offspring distributions should now be supported on $\mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}^K$. Let’s say the offspring distribution from a parent of type i is $\mu^{(i)}$.

The first question to address is one of survival. Recall that if we want to know whether a standard Galton-Watson process has positive probability of having infinite size, that is never going extinct, we only need to know the expectation of the offspring distribution. If this is less than 1, then the process is subcritical and is almost surely finite. If it is greater than 1, then it is supercritical and survives with positive probability. If the expectation is exactly 1 (and the variance is finite) then the process is critical and although it is still almost surely finite, the overall population size has a power-law tail, and hence (or otherwise) the expected population size is infinite.

We would like a similar result for the multitype process, saying that we do not need to know everything about the distribution to decide what the survival probability should be.

The first thing to address is why we can’t just reduce the multitype change to the monotype setting. It’s easiest to assume that we know the type of the root in the multitype tree. The case where the type of the root is random can be reconstructed later. Anyway, suppose now that we want to know the offspring distribution of a vertex in the m-th generation. To decide this, we need to know the probability that this vertex has a given type, say type j. To calculate this, we need to work out all the type possibilities for the first m generations, and their probabilities, which may well include lots of complicated size-biasing. Certainly it is not easy, and there’s no reason why these offspring distributions should be IID. The best we can say is that they should probably be exchangeable within each generation.

Obviously if the offspring distribution does not depend on the parent’s type, then we have a standard Galton-Watson tree with types assigned in an IID manner to the realisation. If the types are symmetric (for example if M, to be defined, is invariant under permuting the indices) then life gets much easier. In general, however, it will be more complicated than this.

We can however think about how to decide on survival probability. We consider the expected number of offspring, allowing both the type of the parent and the type of the child to vary. So define $m_{ij}$ to be the expected number of type j children born to a type i parent. Then write these in a matrix $M=(m_{ij})$.

One generalisation is to consider a Galton-Watson forest started from some positive number of roots of various types. Suppose we have a vector $\nu=(\nu_i)$ listing the number of roots of each type. Then the expected number of descendents of each type at generation n is given by the vector $\nu M^n$.

Let $\lambda$ be the largest eigenvalue of M. As for the transition matrices of Markov chains, the Perron-Frobenius theorem applies here, which confirms that, because the entries of M are positive, the eigenvalue with largest modulus is simple and real, and the associated eigenvector has entirely positive entries. [In fact we need a couple of extra conditions on M, including that it is possible to get from any type to any other type – we say irreducible – but that isn’t worth going into now.]

So in fact the total number of descendents at generation n grows like $\lambda^n$ in expectation, and so we have the same description of subcriticality and supercriticality. We can also make a sensible comment about the left-$\lambda$-eigenvector of M. This is the limiting proportion of the different types of vertices.

It’s a result (eg. [3]) that the height profile of a depth-first search on a standard Galton-Watson tree converges to Brownian Motion. Another way to phrase this is that a GW tree conditioned to have some size N has the Brownian Continuum Random Tree as a scaling limit as N grows to infinity. Miermont [4] proves that this result holds for the multitype tree as well. In the remainder of this post I want to discuss one idea along the way to the proof, and one application.

I said initially that there wasn’t a trivial reduction of a multitype process to a monotype process. There is however a non-trivial embedding of a monotype process in a multitype process. Consider all the vertices of type 1, and all the paths between such vertices. Then draw a new tree consisting of just the type 1 vertices. Two of these are joined by an edge if there is no other type 1 vertex on the unique path between them in the original tree. If that definition is confusing, think of the most sensible way to construct a tree on the type 1 vertices from the original, and you’ve probably chosen this definition.

There are two important things about this new tree. 1) It is a Galton-Watson tree, and 2) if the original tree is critical, then this reduced tree is also critical. Proving 1) is heavily dependent on exactly what definitions one takes for both the multitype branching mechanism and the standard G-W mechanism. Essentially, at a type 1 vertex, the number of type 1 descendents is not dependent on anything that happened at previous generations, nor in other branches of the original tree. This gives IID offspring distributions once it is formalised. As for criticality, we note that by the matrix argument given before, under the irreducibility condition discussed, the expectation of the total population size is infinite iff the expected number of type 1 vertices is also infinite. Since the proportion of type 1 vertices is given by the first element of the left eigenvector, which is positive, we can make a further argument that the number of type 1 vertices has a power-law tail iff the total population size also has a power-law tail.

I want to end by explaining why I was thinking about this model at all. In many previous posts I’ve discussed the forest fire model, where occasionally all the edges in some large component are deleted, and the component becomes a set of singletons again. We are interested in the local limit. That is, what do the large components look like from the point of view of a single vertex in the component? If we were able to prove that the large components have BCRT as the scaling limit, this would answer this question.

This holds for the original random graph process. There are two sensible ways to motivate this. Firstly, given that a component is a tree (which it is with high probability if its size is O(1) ), its distribution is that of the uniform tree, and it is known that this has BCRT as a scaling limit [1]. Alternatively, we know that the components have a Poisson Galton-Watson process as a local limit by the same argument used to calculate the increments of the exploration process. So we have an alternative description of the BCRT appearing: the scaling limit of G-W trees conditioned on their size.

Regarding the forest fires, if we stop the process at some time T>1, we know that some vertices have been burned several times and some vertices have never received an edge. What is clear though is that if we specify the age of each vertex, that is, how long has elapsed since it was last burned; conditional on this, we have an inhomogeneous random graph. Note that if we have two vertices of ages s and t, then the probability that there is an edge between them is $1-e^{-\frac{s\wedge t}{n}}$, ie approximately $\frac{s\wedge t}{n}$. The function giving the probabilities of edges between different types of vertices is called the kernel, and here it is sufficiently well-behaved (in particular, it is bounded) that we are able to use the results of Bollobas et al in [2], where they discuss general sparse inhomogeneous random graphs. They show, among many other things, that in this setting as well the local limit is a multitype branching process.

So in conclusion, we have almost all the ingredients towards proving the result we want, that forest fire components have BCRT scaling limit. The only outstanding matter is that the Miermont result deals with a finite number of types, whereas obviously in the setting where we parameterise by age, the set of types is continuous. In other words, I’m working hard!

References

[1] Aldous – The Continuum Random Tree III

[2] Bollobas, Janson, Riordan – The phase transition in inhomogeneous random graphs

[3] Le Gall – Random Trees and Applications

[4] Miermont – Invariance principles for spatial multitype Galton-Watson trees

# Critical Components in Erdos-Renyi

In various previous posts, I’ve talked about the phase transition in the Erdos-Renyi random graph process. Recall the definition of the process. Here we will use the Gilbert model G(n,p), where we have n vertices, and between any pair of vertices we add an edge, independently of other pairs with probability p. We are interested in the sparse scaling, where the typical vertex has degree O(1) in n, and so p=c/n for constant c>0, and we assume throughout that n is large. We could alternatively have considered the alternative Erdos-Renyi model where we choose uniformly at random from the set of graphs with n vertices and some fixed number of edges. Almost all the results present work equally well in this setting.

As proved by Erdos and Renyi, the typical component structure of such a graph changes noticeably around the threshold c=1. Below this, in the subcritical regime, all the components are small, meaning of size at most order O(log n). Above this, in the supercritical regime, there is a single giant component on some non-zero proportion of the vertices. The rest of the graph looks subcritical. The case c=1 exhibits a phase transition between these qualitatively different behaviours. They proved that here, the largest component is with high probability O(n^2/3). It seems that they thought this result held whenever c=1-o(1), but it turns out that this is not the case. In this post, I will discuss some aspects of behaviour around criticality, and the tools needed to treat them.

The first question to address is this: how many components of size n^{2/3} are there? It might be plausible that there is a single such component, like for the subsequent giant component. It might also be plausible that there are n^1/3 such components, so O(n) vertices are on such critical components. As then it is clear how we transition out of criticality into supercriticality – all the vertices on critical components coalesce to form the new giant component.

In fact neither of these are correct. The answer is that for all integers k>0, with high probability the k-th largest component is on a size scale of n^2/3. This is potentially a confusing statement. It looks like there are infinitely many such components, but of course for any particular value of n, this cannot be the case. We should think of there being w(1) components, but o(n^b) for any b>0.

The easiest way to see this is by a duality argument, as we have discussed previously for the supercritical phase. If we remove a component of size O(n^2/3), then what remains is a random graph with n-O(n^2/3) vertices, and edge probability the same as originally. It might make sense to rewrite this probability 1/n as

$\frac{1}{n-O(n^{2/3})}\cdot \frac{n-O(n^{2/3})}{n}=\frac{1-O(n^{-1/3})}{n-O(n^{2/3})}.$

The approximation in the final numerator is basically the same as

$1-o\left(n-O(n^{2/3})\right).$

Although we have no concrete reasoning, it seems at least plausible that this should look similar in structure to G(n,1/n). In particular, there should be another component of size

$O\left([n-O(n^{2/3})]^{2/3}\right)=O(n^{2/3})$.

In fact, the formal proof of this proceeds by an identical argument, only using the exploration process. Because I’ve described this several times before, I’ll be brief. We track how far we have gone through each component in a depth-first walk. In both the supercritical and subcritical cases, when we scale correctly we get a random path which is basically deterministic in the limit (in n). For exactly the same reasons as visible CLT fluctuations for partial sums of RVs with expectation zero, we start seeing interesting effects at criticality.

The important question is the order of rescaling to choose. At each stage of the exploration process, the number of vertices added to the stack is binomial. We want to distinguish between components of size $O(n^{2/3})$ so we should look at the exploration process at time $sn^{2/3}$. The drift of the exploration process is given by the expectation of a binomial random variable minus one (since we remove the current vertex from the stack as we finish exploring it). This is given by

$\mathbb{E}=\left[n-sn^{2/3}\right]\cdot \frac{1}{n}-1=-sn^{-1/3}.$

Note that this is the drift in one time-step. The drift in $n^{2/3}$ time-steps will accordingly by $sn^{1/3}$. So, if we rescale time by $n^{2/3}$ and space by $n^{1/3}$, we should get a nice stochastic process. Specifically, if Z is the exploration process, then we obtain:

$\frac{1}{n^{1/3}}Z^{(n)}_{sn^{2/3}} \rightarrow_d W_s,$

where W is a Brownian motion with inhomogeneous drift -s at time s. The net effect of such a drift at a fixed positive time is given by integrating up to that time, and hence we might say the process has quadratic drift, or is parabolic.

We should remark that our binomial expectation is not entirely correct. We have discounted those $sn^{2/3}$ vertices that have already been explored, but we have not accounted for the vertices currently in the stack. We should also be avoiding considering these. However, we now have a heuristic for the approximate number of these. The number of vertices in the stack should be $O(n^{1/3})$ at all times, and so in particular will always be an order of magnitude smaller than the number of vertices already considered. Therefore, they won’t affect this drift term, though this must be accounted for in any formal proof of convergence. On the subject of which, the mode of convergence is, unsurprisingly, weak convergence uniformly on compact sets. That is, for any fixed S, the convergence holds weakly on the random functions up to time $sn^{2/3}$.

Note that this process will tend to minus infinity almost surely. Component sizes are given by excursions above the running minimum. The process given by the height of the original process above the running minimum is called reflected. Essentially, we construct the reflected process by having the same generator when the current value is positive, and forcing the process up when it is at zero. There are various ways to construct this more formally, including as the scaling limit of some simple random walks conditioned never to stay non-negative.

The cute part of the result is that it holds equally well in a so-called critical window either side of the critical probability 1/n. When the probability is $\frac{1+tn^{-1/3}}{n}$, for any $t\in \mathbb{R}$, the same argument holds. Now the drift at time s is t-s, though everything else still holds.

This result was established by Aldous in [1], and gives a mechanism for calculating distributions of component sizes and so on through this critical window.

In particular, we are now in a position to answer the original question regarding how many such components there were. The key idea is that because whenever we exhaust a component in the exploration process, we choose a new vertex uniformly at random, we are effectively choosing a component according to the size-biased distribution. Roughly speaking, the largest components will show up near the beginning. Note that a critical $O(n^{2/3})$ component will not necessarily be exactly the first component in the exploration process, but the components that are explored before this will take up sufficiently few vertices that they won’t show up in the scaling of the limit.

In any case, the reflected Brownian motion ‘goes on forever’, and the drift is eventually very negative, so there cannot be infinitely wide excursions, hence there are infinitely many such critical components.

If we care about the number of cycles, we can treat this also via the exploration process. Note that in any depth-first search we are necessarily only interested in a spanning tree of the host graph. Anyway, when we are exploring a vertex, there could be extra edges to other vertices in the stack, but not to vertices we’ve already finished exploring (otherwise the edge would have been exposed then). So the expected number of excess edges into a vertex is proportional to the height of the exploration process at that vertex. So the overall expected number of excess edges, conditional on the exploration process is the area under the curve. This carries over perfectly well into the stochastic process limit. It is then a calculation to verify that the area under the curve is almost surely infinite, and thus that we expect there to be infinitely many cycles in a critical random graph.

REFERENCES

[1] Aldous D. – Brownian excursions, critical random graphs and the multiplicative coalescent

# Large Deviations 5 – Stochastic Processes and Mogulskii’s Theorem

Motivation

In the previous posts about Large Deviations, most of the emphasis has been on the theory. To summarise briefly, we have a natural idea that for a family of measures supported on the same metric space, increasingly concentrated as some index grows, we might expect the probability of seeing values in a set not containing the limit in distribution to grow exponentially. The canonical example is the sample mean of a family of IID random variables, as treated by Cramer’s theorem.

It becomes apparent that it will not be enough to specify the exponent for a given large deviation event just by taking the infimum of the rate function, so we have to define an LDP topologically, with different behaviour on open and closed sets. Now we want to find some LDPs for more complicated measures, but which will have genuinely non-trivial applications. The key idea in all of this is that the infimum present in the definition of an LDP doesn’t just specify the rate function, it also might well give us some information about the configurations or events that lead to the LDP.

The slogan for the LDP as in Frank den Hollander’s excellent book is: “A large deviation event will happen in the least unlikely of all the unlikely ways.” This will be useful when our underlying space is a bit more complicated.

Setup

As a starting point, consider the set-up for Cramer’s theorem, with IID $X_1,\ldots,X_n$. But instead of investigating LD behaviour for the sample mean, we investigate LD behaviour for the whole set of RVs. There is a bijection between sequences and the partial sums process, so we investigate the partial sums process, rescaled appropriately. For the moment this is a sequence not a function or path (continuous or otherwise), but in the limit it will be, and furthermore it won’t make too much difference whether we interpolate linearly or step-wise.

Concretely, we consider the rescaled random walk:

$Z_n(t):=\tfrac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{[nt]}X_i,\quad t\in[0,1],$

with laws $\mu_n$ supported on $L_\infty([0,1])$. Note that the expected behaviour is a straight line from (0,0) to (1,$\mathbb{E}X_1$). In fact we can say more than that. By Donsker’s theorem we have a functional version of a central limit theorem, which says that deviations from this expected behaviour are given by suitably scaled Brownian motion:

$\sqrt{n}\left(\frac{Z_n(t)-t\mathbb{E}X}{\sqrt{\text{Var}(X_1)}}\right)\quad\stackrel{d}{\rightarrow}\quad B(t),\quad t\in[0,1].$

This is what we expect ‘standard’ behaviour to look like:

The deviations from a straight line are on a scale of $\sqrt{n}$. Here are two examples of potential large deviation behaviour:

Or this:

Note that these are qualitatively different. In the first case, the first half of the random variables are in general much larger than the second half, which appear to have empirical mean roughly 0. In the second case, a large deviation in overall mean is driven by a single very large value. It is obviously of interest to find out what the probabilities of each of these possibilities are.

We can do this via an LDP for $(\mu_n)$. Now it is really useful to be working in a topological context with open and closed sets. It will turn out that the rate function is supported on absolutely continuous functions, whereas obviously for finite n, none of the sample paths are continuous!

We assume that $\Lambda(\lambda)$ is the logarithmic moment generating function of X_1 as before, with $\Lambda^*(x)$ the Fenchel-Legendre transform. Then the key result is:

Theorem (Mogulskii): The measures $(\mu_n)$ satisfy an LDP on $L_\infty([0,1])$ with good rate function:

$I(\phi)=\begin{cases}\int_0^1 \Lambda^*(\phi'(t))dt,&\quad \text{if }\phi\in\mathcal{AC}, \phi(0)=0,\\ \infty&\quad\text{otherwise,}\end{cases}$

where AC is the space of absolutely continuous functions on [0,1]. Note that AC is dense in $L_\infty([0,1])$, so any open set contains a $\phi$ for which $I(\phi)$ is at least in principle finite. (Obviously, if $\Lambda^*$ is not finite everywhere, then extra restrictions of $\phi'$ are required.)

The following picture may be helpful at providing some motivation:

So what is going on is that if we take a path and zoom in on some small interval around a point, note first that behaviour on this interval is independent of behaviour everywhere else. Then the gradient at the point is the local empirical mean of the random variables around this point in time. The probability that this differs from the actual mean is given by Cramer’s rate function applied to the empirical mean, so we obtain the rate function for the whole path by integrating.

More concretely, but still very informally, suppose there is some $\phi'(t)\neq \mathbb{E}X$, then this says that:

$Z_n(t+\delta t)-Z_n(t)=\phi'(t)\delta t+o(\delta t),$

$\Rightarrow\quad \mu_n\Big(\phi'(t)\delta t+o(\delta t)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=nt+1}^{n(t+\delta t)}X_i\Big),$

$= \mu_n\Big( \phi'(t)+o(1)=\frac{1}{n\delta t}\sum_{i=1}^{n\delta t}X_i\Big)\sim e^{-n\delta t\Lambda^*(\phi'(t))},$

by Cramer. Now we can use independence:

$\mu_n(Z_n\approx \phi)=\prod_{\delta t}e^{-n\delta t \Lambda^*(\phi'(t))}=e^{-\sum_{\delta t}n\delta t \Lambda^*(\phi'(t))}\approx e^{-n\int_0^1 \Lambda^*(\phi'(t))dt},$

as in fact is given by Mogulskii.

Remarks

1) The absolutely continuous requirement is useful. We really wouldn’t want to be examining carefully the tail of the underlying distribution to see whether it is possible on an exponential scale that o(n) consecutive RVs would have sum O(n).

2) In general $\Lambda^*(x)$ will be convex, which has applications as well as playing a useful role in the proof. Recalling den Hollander’s mantra, we are interested to see where infima hold for LD sets in the host space. So for the event that the empirical mean is greater than some threshold larger than the expectation, Cramer’s theorem told us that this is exponentially the same as same the empirical mean is roughly equal to the threshold. Now Mogulskii’s theorem says more. By convexity, we know that the integral functional for the rate function is minimised by straight lines. So we learn that the contributions to the large deviation are spread roughly equally through the sample. Note that this is NOT saying that all the random variables will have the same higher than expected value. The LDP takes no account of fluctuations in the path on a scale smaller than n. It does however rule out both of the situations pictured a long way up the page. We should expect to see roughly a straight line, with unexpectedly steep gradient.

3) The proof as given in Dembo and Zeitouni is quite involved. There are a few stages, the first and simplest of which is to show that it doesn’t matter on an exponential scale whether we interpolate linearly or step-wise. Later in the proof we will switch back and forth at will. The next step is to show the LDP for the finite-dimensional problem given by evaluating the path at finitely many points in [0,1]. A careful argument via the Dawson-Gartner theorem allows lifting of the finite-dimensional projections back to the space of general functions with the topology of pointwise convergence. It remains to prove that the rate function is indeed the supremum of the rate functions achieved on projections. Convexity of $\Lambda^*(x)$ is very useful here for the upper bound, and this is where it comes through that the rate function is infinite when the comparison path is not absolutely continuous. To lift to the finer topology of $L_\infty([0,1])$ requires only a check of exponential tightness in the finer space, which follows from Arzela-Ascoli after some work.

In conclusion, it is fairly tricky to prove even this most straightforward case, so unsurprisingly it is hard to extend to the natural case where the distributions of the underlying RVs (X) change continuously in time, as we will want for the analysis of more combinatorial objects. Next time I will consider why it is hard but potentially interesting to consider with adaptations of these techniques an LDP for the size of the largest component in a sparse random graph near criticality.